Hedge ratios and basis behavior: An intuitive insight?

Abstract

onsiderable work has been devoted to the question of the proper volume of futures c contracts needed to protect or enhance the value of a given on-hand or anticipated volume of a physical commodity until the time of the commodity's final disposal in the cash market [Blank (1989);Kahl (1983);Witt et al. (1987)l.The purpose of this article is to examine the practical meaning and use of elemental hedge ratios derived from the simple regression of end-of-hedge cash and futures price levels and, alternatively, price changes during the specific length of a hedge. The argument is that the hedge ratio simply indicates the basis behavior at the end of the hedge or, in the case of price changes, during the life of the hedge. Hedge ratios from regressed price levels reveal closing basis behavior and are useful for forecasting the net price resulting from the hedge [Elam and Davis (1990)l. Hedge ratios from regressed price changes give some insight into basis behavior during the hedge and also permit forecasting the net price expected to result from the hedge. A third method of computing simple hedge ratios by regressing changes in cash returns on changes in futures returns is not discussed because it does not yield a straightforward minimum price risk hedge ratio.The article is organized as follows: (a) review of relevant literature, (b) the basic hedge ratio formulas and data forms, (c) Working's (1953b) hedge tactic with basis changes, (d) the hedge ratio and net price forecasting, (e) an example of the price levels ratio for forecasting net prices for a nondeliverable commodity, and (f) some conclusions. SOME LITERATURETheories on the purpose(s) of commodity hedging using futures markets have been formally partitioned among (1) traditional or pure risk minimization, (2) Working's (1953a;1953b) profit-motivated approach, and (3) a combination of (1) and (2) leading to the portfolio approach which may result in futures/physical commodity hedging ratios other than the traditional one-to-one [Ederington (1979);Johnson (1960)l. Working (1953b criticized the traditional approach because of its naive tests of hedging effectiveness associated with routine hedging. He suggested that, realistically, merchants' or dealers' hedging is determined both by inventory levels and expected basis changes. In contrast to much "optimal" hedge ratio research published in recent years, Working was concerned with "discretionary hedging" based on predictable basis changes. Discretionary hedging prescribes cash speculation and low inventory if unfavorable basis changes are expected. If a favorable (profitable)

M-GARCH Hedge Ratios and Hedging Effectiveness in Australian Futures Markets

“…Shafer (1993) noted thai the "full" portfolio model is generally not nppropriate because hedging as practiced is essentially either (I) an attempt at arbitrage via Working's anticipated change in relative prices (basis change) and/or (2) a zero return process where the objective is a minimum risk bearing price relative to some break-even price, probably in an anticipatory hedge. Hartz murk ( 1988) has suggested that even large commercial firms are generally risk minimizers rather than "nimble footed speculators" reacting to expected price changes.…”

Risikomanagement rohstoffexportierender Entwicklungsländer

“…Je negativer der Bias wird, umso höher ist die für den Risikotransfer zu entrichtende Risikoprämie für einen Long-Hedger ( eine Terminkaufposition zu Hedgingzwecken).109 Eine Grenzwertbildung eines beliebigen Risikoaversionskoeffizienten A; gegen Null zeigt, daß o zu Null wird 110. Das Ergebnis kommt nur zustande, weil Transaktionskosten unberücksichtigt bleiben 111. Das Modell vermittelt insbesondere durch die Annahme rationaler Erwartungen den Eindruck, daßEvamaria Wagner -978-3-631-75600-3 Downloaded from PubFactory at 09/22/2020 05:32:54AM via free access…”

Modelos para estimar razão de Hedge de variância mínima

“…Também são bastante difundidos testes como o de Ljung-Box e o teste dos multiplicadores de Lagrange para captar a presença de efeitos GARCH. Esses últimos são feitos através de um teste t para a variável TR 2 , onde T é o número de observações e R 2 é o coeficiente que indica o grau de ajustamento para o seguinte modelo: (65) o teste é feito sob a hipótese nula de que a variância condicional é constante.…”