Hedging the risk of increased emissions in long term energy planning

Niet, Taco; Lyseng, B.; English, Joseph M.; Keller, Victor; Palmer-Wilson, Kevin; Moazzen, Iman; Wild, Peter; Rowe, Andrew

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2017.02.001

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…They pointed out different sources and dimensions of uncertainty in integrated energy planning in a city or territory, even involving renewables, and proposed a conceptual basis of uncertainty involving different types of uncertainty formalised in a coherent and holistic way. At the same time, Niet et al [94] warned against the risk of exceeding estimates of emissions savings in the case of uncertain technologies and indicated the need to incorporate risks in optimal models. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was also demonstrated to be helpful in evaluating the true environmental suitability of energy policies at the local level [66], because LCA considers secondary effects that alter the expected results and that of hidden long-term implications.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RES Implementation in Urban Areas: An Updated Overview

Delponte

Schenone

2020

Sustainability

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In the past, national energy planning guided the development of a central program for infrastructure investment over a defined time period. However, in the current geopolitical context, environmental damage, fossil fuel depletion, and territorial imbalance caused by the centralised energy model are all factors that require a change of energy structure, establishing actions to invest in energy diversification, and solid commitment to local renewable energies. This also implies an enhancement of the role played by local bodies, and particularly by municipalities, in achieving the targets of the Kyoto Protocol and now of the Paris Agreement, because renewable sources need to be studied, applied, and exploited at the local scale. Within this framework, this paper is organized as an overview on the promotion and implementation of the major RES technologies in the deployment of the new energy paradigm at the urban scale, taking into account multiple targets. A survey of existing literature underlines how the RES topic is mostly approached as a problem of energy supply and implementation of technology, but actual sustainability in terms of a social development process and improvement of quality of life by residents is often neglected. Then, this overview stimulated the authors to highlight three main critical issues and gaps and support the need of an all-encompassing approach as a final recommendation for a general RES urban planning advancement.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RES Implementation in Urban Areas: An Updated Overview

Delponte

Schenone

2020

Sustainability

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“…The OSeMOSYS model is well suited for this analysis and has been applied in similar studies, e.g. on the effects of carbon taxes (Lyseng et al, 2016), electricity trade (Taliotis et al, 2016;English et al, 2017;Pinto de Moura et al, 2017), and emissions uncertainty (Niet et al, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sedimentary basin geothermal favourability mapping and power generation assessments

et al. 2018

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Mitigating climate change requires elimination of fossil fuel related greenhouse gas emissions. Transitioning electricity generation to low-carbon sources and substituting fossil fuels with electricity in non-electric sectors is considered to be a key strategy. This dissertation investigates resource options to and land area impacts of decarbonizing electricity generation and electrifying adjacent sectors. Three studies analyze transition options in the western Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The first study investigates technology transition pathways and land area impacts of reducing electricity generation related carbon emissions in fossil fuel-dominated Alberta. A final 70% share of wind, solar, and hydro power reduces emissions by 90% between 2015 and 2060. This scenario requires designating 5% additional land area to electricity generation annually. Land is largely designated to the required space between wind turbines, with smaller areas attributed to ground-mounted solar and hydro power. System planners can reduce the land area impacts by deploying more compact geothermal, rooftop solar and natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. These technology compositions can hold land area impacts constant in time if depleted natural gas and CCS infrastructure is expediently reclaimed, but total net present system costs increase by 11% over the 45-year period. Without reclamation, fuel extraction and carbon sequestration increase land area impacts at least fourfold within this time period. The second study investigates sedimentary basin geothermal resources in northeastern British Columbia. Geothermal energy is a potentially low-cost, low-carbon, dispatchable resource for electricity generation with a relatively small land area impact. A two-step method first geospatially overlays economic and geological criteria to highlight areas favourable to geothermal development. Next, the Volume Method applies petroleum exploration and production data in Monte Carlo probability simulations to estimate electricity generation potential at the four areas with highest favourability (Clarke Lake, Jedney, Horn River, and Prophet River). The total power generation potential of all four areas is determined to be 107 MW. Volume normalized reservoir potentials range from 1.8 xvi Dedication I dedicate this dissertation to my parents, Richard and Dagmar Palmer-Wilson, and to my grandparents, Gerhard and Ilka Radke. The weight of this work calmly rests on their unending love, support, patience and wisdom. "Wenn die Kinder jung sind, gib ihnen tiefe Wurzeln. Danach gib ihnen Flügel." Table 1-1 Attribution of contributions to chapters 3 to 5 Contributor Contributions Ch.

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“…Because energy infrastructure outlast any electoral or administrative cycle, such transparent information is critical for stakeholders including the public, that is, taxpayers and voters, and support organisations, like development banks. To this end, the analysis uses the Open Source Energy MOdelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) which is an open source energy model generator that uses linear optimization techniques, and has global application (Fattori et al 2016, Löffler et al 2017, Niet et al 2017, Pfenninger et al 2018, Taliotis et al 2016, UN DESA 2016. It determines the cost-optimal long-term investment and operation required to satisfy an exogenously defined energy demand (Howells et al 2011).…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of energy futures—a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure

Moksnes

Rozenberg

Broad

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use postprocessing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO 2 -limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical-at a continental level-to unlock economic, low-carbon investment.

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Hedging the risk of increased emissions in long term energy planning

Cited by 19 publications

References 54 publications

RES Implementation in Urban Areas: An Updated Overview

RES Implementation in Urban Areas: An Updated Overview

Sedimentary basin geothermal favourability mapping and power generation assessments

Determinants of energy futures—a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure

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