Primary liver cancer (PLC) is common in many areas of the developing world, but uncommon in most of the developed world. Some evidence suggests, however, that the global pattern of PLC may be changing. To clarify this issue, we examined incidence rates for PLC over the 15-year time period, 1978 -92, in selected cancer registries around the world. With some exceptions, developed countries have experienced PLC increases in incidence whereas developing countries have experienced declines. Although the reasons for the trends are not entirely clear, the increased seroprevalence of HCV in the developed world and the elimination of HBV-cofactors in the developing world are likely to have contributed to the patterns. Further progress against PLC may be seen in the developing world once the HBV-vaccinated segment of the population reaches adulthood. Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the fifth most common cancer in the world 1 and the fourth most common cause of cancer mortality. 2 PLC is composed of several subtypes, including hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma, hepatoblastoma, and angiosarcoma. In most countries, hepatocellular carcinoma comprises 85-90% of PLC and so the terms are often used interchangeably.PLC rates have an extremely wide geographic variation, such that 80% of the cases arise in developing countries, particularly those of southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Even within a confined geographic area, certain ethnic groups have higher PLC rates than others. In these high-rate populations, chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), and contamination of foodstuffs with aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) are recognized major risk factors. In contrast, neither HBV nor AFB1 is considered to be a major factor in low-rate areas of the developed world. Alcohol ingestion and, increasingly, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are more likely to be related to PLC in these areas. Reports of incidence rates declining in some high-risk populations 3 while increasing in some low-risk populations 4 -6 suggest that the global patterns of liver cancer may be changing. To determine whether the reported changes are isolated phenomena or whether new global patterns of liver cancer are emerging, we examined incidence trends over the 15-year period 1978 -92.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
Incidence dataTo examine the current global pattern of PLC incidence, genderspecific rates in 53 registries were abstracted for 67 populations by Parkin et al. 7 An effort was made to include registries from each continent and registries that reported data for more than 1 ethnic group, but no more than 1 registry from any single country was included. To examine the trends over time, gender and age-specific and -standardized incidence rates in 23 populations from 21 registries were retrieved by The abstracted rates cover 3 5-year intervals : 1978 -82, 1983-87 and 1988 -92 and are age-adjusted to the world standard population. Use of a fourth time period (1973-77) was considered but rejected due to its use of the International Classification of Diseases, ...