BackgroundMethods for accurately predicting the prognosis of patients with recurrent hepatolithiasis (RH) after biliary surgery are lacking. This study aimed to develop a model that dynamically predicts the risk of hepatolithiasis recurrence using a machine-learning (ML) approach based on multiple clinical high-order correlation data.Materials and methodsData from patients with RH who underwent surgery at five centres between January 2015 and December 2020 were collected and divided into training and testing sets. Nine predictive models, which we named the Correlation Analysis and Recurrence Evaluation System (CARES), were developed and compared using machine learning (ML) methods to predict the patients’ dynamic recurrence risk within 5 post-operative years. We adopted a k-fold cross validation with k = 10 and tested model performance on a separate testing set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the performance of the models, and the significance and direction of each predictive variable were interpreted and justified based on Shapley Additive Explanations.ResultsModels based on ML methods outperformed those based on traditional regression analysis in predicting the recurrent risk of patients with RH, with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) showing the best performance, both yielding an AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve) of∼0.9 or higher at predictions. These models were proved to have even better performance on testing sets than in a 10-fold cross validation, indicating that the model was not overfitted. The SHAP method revealed that immediate stone clearance, final stone clearance, number of previous surgeries, and preoperative CA19-9 index were the most important predictors of recurrence after reoperation in RH patients. An online version of the CARES model was implemented.ConclusionThe CARES model was firstly developed based on ML methods and further encapsulated into an online version for predicting the recurrence of patients with RH after hepatectomy, which can guide clinical decision-making and personalised postoperative surveillance.
