HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter H. F.; Jamieson, Matthew

doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2017.08.012

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…But, an increase in armoring comes with several possible consequences, including a decrease to the beach sediment supply (Mushkin et al, ; Runyan & Griggs, ), possible eventual loss of the beach (if present) due to gradual inundation, and continuing development in already vulnerable locations—which, in turn, will further increase the risk (Armstrong et al, ). Work to add societal and economic impacts has recently been completed (Jones et al, ), which adds a new dimension to this work. We could not explicitly include armoring in the model projections because it is difficult to constrain variables such as how long erosion control structures will be maintained or where they will be constructed in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century

et al. 2018

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Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multimodel ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multidecadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475‐km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with four SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than twofold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19–41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from ±5 to 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century

et al. 2018

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“…For large-area assessments (regional, continental, global), several choices are available for DEMs for the required topographic information to project potential impacts of increased coastal water levels, whether a simple inundation model is used or a more complex process-based or probabilistic model is employed. Previous research has demonstrated that the quality of data, and associated transformations, used for elevation-based assessments must be well understood and applied to properly model potential impacts (Gesch, 2009;Coveney and Fotheringham, 2011;Cooper et al, , 2015Gesch, 2013;Schmid et al, 2014;Dahl et al, 2017;Jones et al, 2017;West et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Best Practices for Elevation-Based Assessments of Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Exposure

2018

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“…Geospatial data summarizing various population, business, land cover, and infrastructure were used to estimate community exposure to a given flood hazard zone in HERA [20]. Residential populations were estimated using block-level population counts compiled from the 2010 US Census [23].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Users can export summary tables and reports detailing changes in flood extent by scenario on a scale relevant to local planners. The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics [20] (HERA; https://www.usgs.gov/apps/hera/) web tool translates the flooding hazards into community-based exposure statistics and quantifies Figure 1. Web applications for visualization, synthesis, socio-economic analyses, and data download.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

Erikson

Barnard

O’Neill

et al. 2018

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This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socioeconomic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9-350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km 2) in addition to a 25-500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55-110% increase in residential impact and a 40-90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socioeconomic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

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HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

Cited by 19 publications

References 12 publications

A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century

A Model Ensemble for Projecting Multidecadal Coastal Cliff Retreat During the 21st Century

Best Practices for Elevation-Based Assessments of Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Exposure

Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

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