Heterogeneous Fall in Productive Capacity in Italian Industry During the 2008-13 Double-Dip Recession

Abstract

Between 2008 and 2013 productive capacity was considerably downsized in the Italian manufacturing sector. This paper analyses the micro-data collected for the Bank of Italy surveys to identify the main drivers of the reduction in the whole 2008-13 period and in four sub-periods (pre-crisis 2001-07, first phase of the crisis 2008-09, recovery 2010-11, and second crisis 2012-13). Our main findings are that i) losses of productive capacity varied widely across manufacturing sub-sectors with differences in pre-crisis trends tending to persist in a few sub-sectors during the double-dip recession; ii) large firms were more successful in avoiding major capacity losses, especially in the first phase of the crisis; iii) the share of sales on foreign markets was negatively correlated with performance in 2008-09, but the correlation turned positive in 2012-13; iv) among the Italian macro-regions, the Centre weathered the long recession better; v) subsidiaries underperformed firms not belonging to any group; and vi) the negative effects on productive capacity of credit constraints, which discouraged investments, were felt by Italian firms particularly in 2012-13.

The Italian economic stagnation in a Kaldorian theoretical perspective

“…the average small size of firms. This specificity is relevant in order to consider firms-banks relationships: small firms are more exposed to credit crunch, while large firms are more successful in avoiding major losses of productive capacity in a phase of crisis (Locatelli et al 2016).…”