Hidden emissions of forest transitions: a socio-ecological reading of forest change

Gingrich, Simone; Lauk, Christian; Niedertscheider, Maria; Pichler, Mélanie; Schaffartzik, Anke; Schmid, Martin; Magerl, A.; Noë, Julia Le; Bhan, Manan; Erb, Karl‐Heinz

doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2019.04.005

Cited by 49 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Therefore, agricultural intensification and specialization enabled C sequestration in the course of the forest transition, but was only possible by mechanization, inputs of mineral fertilizers, long‐distance trade of animal feed, and increasing livestock density, which in turn generated significant amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Balancing the climate‐change mitigation effects of forest transitions against their “hidden emissions” (Gingrich et al, ) emphasizes the need to further integrate land‐use modeling tools, such as the CRAFT model, in order to better quantify and allocate the C budgets related to long‐term land‐use change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the expansion of forest area was made possible by agricultural intensification, notably the development of fodder crops and abandonment of extensive grazing and other marginal land uses (Erb et al, 2008;Gingrich et al, 2019;Mather & Needle, 1998), and through the development of international agricultural trade promoted by the free trade agreements under Napoléon III (Duby & Walon, 1993). However, new regulations and rules governing the access and use of forests also impacted forest change, as did a more acute perception of forest degradation and the threat that it represents for the French economy (Mather et al, 1999) 1900 1900-1910 1910-1920 1920-1930 1930-1940 1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 MtonC Biomass density Species composition Area Biomass C stocks (Le Noë, Billen, Esculier, & Garnier, 2018;Le Noë, Billen, Mary, et al, 2019).…”

Section: Drivers Of Forest Expansionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Growing forest area and forest C stocks may result from a variety of drivers. Reduced wood extraction (enabled, e.g., by forest protection and/or wood fuel substitution) can result in vegetation thickening and increased C stocks in forests (Gingrich et al, ; Kauppi et al, ; Magerl, Le Noë, Erb, Bhan, & Gingrich, ). Changes in growth conditions owing to environmental changes such as climate change, and changes in forest secondary uses may have similar effects (Erb et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

Noë

Matej

Magerl

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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The development of appropriate tools to quantify long‐term carbon (C) budgets following forest transitions, that is, shifts from deforestation to afforestation, and to identify their drivers are key issues for forging sustainable land‐based climate‐change mitigation strategies. Here, we develop a new modeling approach, CRAFT (CaRbon Accumulation in ForesTs) based on widely available input data to study the C dynamics in French forests at the regional scale from 1850 to 2015. The model is composed of two interconnected modules which integrate biomass stocks and flows (Module 1) with litter and soil organic C (Module 2) and build upon previously established coupled climate‐vegetation models. Our model allows to develop a comprehensive understanding of forest C dynamics by systematically depicting the integrated impact of environmental changes and land use. Model outputs were compared to empirical data of C stocks in forest biomass and soils, available for recent decades from inventories, and to a long‐term simulation using a bookkeeping model. The CRAFT model reliably simulates the C dynamics during France's forest transition and reproduces C‐fluxes and stocks reported in the forest and soil inventories, in contrast to a widely used bookkeeping model which strictly only depicts C‐fluxes due to wood extraction. Model results show that like in several other industrialized countries, a sharp increase in forest biomass and SOC stocks resulted from forest area expansion and, especially after 1960, from tree growth resulting in vegetation thickening (on average 7.8 Mt C/year over the whole period). The difference between the bookkeeping model, 0.3 Mt C/year in 1850 and 21 Mt C/year in 2015, can be attributed to environmental and land management changes. The CRAFT model opens new grounds for better quantifying long‐term forest C dynamics and investigating the relative effects of land use, land management, and environmental change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Drivers Of Forest Expansionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

Noë

Matej

Magerl

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…By contrast, full territorial/production-based GHG accounts also need to quantify emissions from land-use and land-cover changes (LULUCF) as well as highly uncertain and strongly context-dependent emissions such as those of CH 4 and N 2 O. Comprehensive assessments of GHG emissions over many decades (in particular with relation to the LULUCF component for long-term changes in carbon stocks in soils and above-ground biomass) are only recently becoming available and will add important new aspects to the decoupling issue (Gingrich et al 2019). The literature analyzing GHG-GDP impact decoupling is therefore quite driven by the improvement in data availability over time.…”

Section: Research On Emissions Decouplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part I: bibliometric and conceptual mapping

Wiedenhofer

Virág

Kalt

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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128

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As long as economic growth is a major political goal, decoupling growth from resource use and emissions is a prerequisite for a sustainable net-zero emissions future. However, empirical evidence for absolute decoupling, i.e. decreasing resource use and emissions at the required scale despite continued economic growth, is scarce and scattered across different research streams. In this two-part systematic review, we assess how and to what extent decoupling has been observed and what can be learnt for addressing the sustainability and climate crisis. Based on a transparent approach, we systematically identify and screen more than 11 500 scientific papers, eventually analyzing full texts of 835 empirical studies on the relationship between economic growth (GDP), resource use (materials and energy) and greenhouse gas emissions. Part I of the review examines how decoupling has been investigated across three research streams: energy, materials and energy, and emissions. Part II synthesizes the empirical evidence and policy implications (Haberl et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 065003). In part I, we examine the topical, temporal and geographical scopes, methods of analysis, institutional networks and prevalent conceptual angles. We find that in this rapidly growing literature, the vast majority of studies-decomposition, 'causality' and Environmental Kuznets Curve analysis-approach the topic from a statistical-econometric point of view, while hardly acknowledging thermodynamic principles on the role of energy and materials for socio-economic activities. A potentially fundamental incompatibility between economic growth and systemic societal changes to address the climate crisis is rarely considered. We conclude that the existing wealth of empirical evidence merits braver conceptual advances than we have seen thus far. Future work should focus on comprehensive multi-indicator long-term analyses, conceptually grounded on the fundamental biophysical basis of socio-economic activities, incorporating the role of global supply chains as well as the wider societal role and preconditions of economic growth.

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“…We believe that the data we are sharing with the scientific community offers new possibilities for studying the impact of historical socio-economic processes on the current functioning of regions or ecosystems. Recently, the importance of historical processes in solving future challenges has been noticed by scholars (Gingrich et al, 2019), and we believe our dataset may be useful and contribute to similar research in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Railway network of Galicia and Austrian Silesia (1847-1914)

et al. 2020

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We describe and share reconstructed data of the historical railway network of Galicia and Austrian Silesiatwo regions of the Habsburg Empire that covered more than 80 000 km 2 that are currently divided among Czechia, Poland and Ukraine. The network dataset includes the times of railway appearance and of the most dynamic development until 1914, which marked the outbreak of the First World War. Most of the lines were reconstructed based on OpenStreetMap data, and the lines, which were closed down between 1914 and 2019 and are no longer available in spatial datasets, were reconstructed based on high-resolution satellite imagery and historical maps. Altogether, the network dataset covers nearly 5000 km on 127 lines. The data are accompanied by a set of attributes, i.e. the year of construction, length, starting point, finish point, and type (normal, narrow-gauge, etc.), and are available for download in the shp format.

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Hidden emissions of forest transitions: a socio-ecological reading of forest change

Cited by 49 publications

References 72 publications

Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part I: bibliometric and conceptual mapping

Railway network of Galicia and Austrian Silesia (1847-1914)

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