Significant increases of childhood leukaemia have repeatedly been recorded in situations of marked rural-urban population mixing, confirming the hypothesis that this disease has an underlying infective basis. For the increase in population density implicit in such mixing would increase the level of contacts between susceptible (more prevalent in rural areas) and infected individuals, thereby promoting an epidemic of the relevant infection. The infective agent in question is unknown, but the absence of marked space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia in the general population indicates that it must, as in known infection-based malignancies, be an uncommon response i.e. that the infection itself is largely immunizing. Adults as well as children appear to be involved in its transmission (Kinlen et al, 1993a;Kinlen, 1995).In the case of young (largely pre-school) children aged 0-4 years, an important contribution to their overall level of direct and indirect contacts will be made by fathers' contacts at work. 'High contact' occupations have already been associated with an increased incidence of childhood cytomegalovirus infection and paralytic poliomyelitis. Furthermore, in situations of extreme rural population mixing which had produced excesses of childhood leukaemia, risk was greater among the young children of those whose work involved many community contacts (Kinlen, 1997). No such increases have been found in mortality studies of the question in the (largely urban) general population of England and Wales (Kinlen, 1997;Fear et al, 1999). As an urban population would be expected to have the raised levels of immunity to infective agents often associated with high population density, we have considered the question still open as to whether high levels of paternal occupational contacts have effects on the incidence of childhood leukaemia in young children in a very rural area, where the prevalence of susceptible individuals would be unusually high.We have therefore investigated paternal occupational contact level in relation to childhood leukaemia in a national case-control study in Scotland in the period 1950-89, with particular reference to rural areas and the possible role of population mixing.
METHODS
Cases and controlsEligible cases consisted of children (aged 0-14) diagnosed in Scotland with leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in the years 1950-89. For each child for whom a birth certificate was traced in Scotland that showed a parental occupation, 3 controls of the same age and sex were randomly chosen from the birth registers of the same county. A high proportion of the cases and controls had been included in an earlier investigation of paternal preconceptional occupational exposure to radiation (Kinlen et al, 1993b which gives further details of control selection). Young children (aged 0-4 years) were the main focus of our study, since in the case of older children, a change of paternal occupation is more likely between birth and diagnosis; nevertheless, older children were also investigated. So ...