High Educational Expectations and Low Achievement: Stability of Educational Goals Across Adolescence

Abstract

Data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 were used to investigate variables that predicted stability of adolescents' postsecondary educational expectations from Grade 8 to 2 years after high school. The study included students who had early expectations for at least a bachelor's degree as well as 8th-grade reading or mathematics test scores that were below the median. All participants had high early expectations and comparatively low early achievement. Six years later, approximately 76% of the participants still had high expectations, whereas 24% of them no longer expected to earn a bachelor's degree. Results provide support for the addition of variables to the social cognitive model of educational achievement when predicting long-term educational expectations and attainment.conomic success for young people in the U.S. work-E force increasingly depends on high levels of academic educational attainment. From the 1970s to the 1990s, the earnings gap between those who have 4-year college degrees and those who do not has widened substantially (Snyder & Shafer, 1996). Rasinski, Ingels, Rock, Pollack, and Wu ( 1993) investigated the advice that fathers, mothers, counselors, and teachers gave to high school students regarding college attendance. They found that all of those adults were much more likely in 1990 than in 1980 to advise students to attend college. The trend was evident across socioeconomic classes, racial groups, regions of the country, and achievement test score quartiles. For example, in the lowest test quartile, 26.1% of high school sophomores in 1980 reported that counselors advised them to attend college, whereas 56.4% in 1990 reported that counselors advised them to attend college. In the second quartile, 26.5% of high school sophomores reported that teachers advised them to attend college, as compared with 60.7% in 1990. In other words, those persons most important to students' educational and career development are increasingly encouraging students toward postsecondary academics.Seeking a college degree is not appropriate for every student. Also, many economically lucrative careers do not require college degrees, and educational attainment does not necessarily produce economic return (Ayalon & Yuchtman-Yam, 1989). However, the economic consequences of not obtaining a college degree seem to be greater today and may likely be greater in the future if trends persist.In an examination of National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) base-year data, Hafner, Ingels, Schneider, and Stevenson (1990) reported that U.S. eighth graders had high occupational aspirations and high educational expectations. However, many students with high aspirations and expectations did not indicate plans for college preparatory course work in high school. For example, approximately 75% of eighth graders expected to finish college, but less than 30% of them indicated plans to enter a college-preparatory program in high school. That fact suggests that many students may not be preparing to meet their g...

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