Highlights ShoreTrans predicts trend change and variability on real-world, complex coastlines Incorporates dunes, barriers, seawalls, rocks/cliffs and open sediment budgets Shoreline forcing controls vary widely within and between sites for 1-m SLR over 100-years Up to ±50% difference in translation relative to Bruun-rule, depending on profile morphology Severe reduction in beach width predicted for seawall backed profiles