The article studied the safety of passing the rolling stock by railway switches. On railway switches, counter rails provide the safe passage of the rolling stock by the wheelsets through the harmful space of the cross. The levels of dynamic effects arising from the passage of carriages by the railway switch significantly depend on the relative position of the wheelsets and elements of the switch, which is determined by the combination of their main geometric dimensions. To calculate the most unfavorable combinations of wheelset and gauge dimensions, taking into account the tolerances adopted for these dimensions, the method of probability compositions is used, based on the application of the theory of probability. The calculating apparatus of the approach using conditional probabilities of events based on the formulas of total probability and Bayes formula. The level of impact of the wheels on the counter-rail is regulated by rationing the values of the “impact effect” on the bent and catching parts of the counter-rail.