High Resolution Climate Scenarios on Mediterranean Test Case Areas for the Hydro-Climate Integrated System

Mercogliano, Paola; Montesarchio, Myriam; Rianna, Guido; Schiano, Pasquale; Vezzoli, Renata; Zollo, N. C.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2539008

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…Compared to the reference period, the increase of the average annual value will be by around 1.2 °C in all locations, reaching 1.5 °C in summer. Similar results were found when assessing air temperature changes for the period 2021-2050 with respect to the reference period 1982-2011 in the Po river basin (Mercogliano et al 2014;Vezzoli et al 2016). D'Oria et al (2018 analyzed the climate change effects on temperature over the Taro, Parma, and Enza River basins, in the Emilia Romagna region, using an ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models and the same emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).…”

Section: Future Change In Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 76%

Impacts of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 on future projected reference evapotranspiration in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

Hamouda

Tomozeiu

Pavan

et al. 2021

Theor Appl Climatol

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The continuous increase of atmospheric CO2 content mainly due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is causing a rise in temperature on earth, altering the hydrological and meteorological processes and affecting crop physiology. Evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Thus, understanding the change in evapotranspiration due to global warming is essential for better water resources planning and management and agricultural production. In this study, the effect of climate change with a focus on the combined effect of temperature and elevated CO2 concentrations on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was evaluated using the Penman–Monteith equation. A EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble was used to estimate ETo in five locations in the Emilia-Romagna region (Northern Italy) during the period 2021–2050. Then, its projected changes in response to different CO2 concentrations (i.e., 372 ppm and 550 ppm) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were analyzed. Simulation results with both scenarios, without increasing CO2 levels (372 ppm), showed that the annual and summertime ETo for all locations increased by an average of 4 to 5.4% with regard to the reference period 1981–2005, for an increase of air temperature by 1 to 1.5 °C. When the effect of elevated CO2 levels (550 ppm) was also considered in combination with projected changes in temperature, changes in both annual and summer ETo demand for all locations varied from − 1.1 to 2.2% during the 2021–2050 period with regard to the reference period 1981–2005. This shows that higher CO2 levels moderated the increase in ETo that accompanies an increase in air temperature.

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Section: Future Change In Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 76%