High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Hochman, Assaf; Mercogliano, Paola; Alpert, Pinhas; Saaroni, Hadas; Bucchignani, Edoardo

doi:10.1002/joc.5714

Cited by 51 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Recently, a new study (Hochman et al, ) projected changes for the extreme temperature and precipitation indices (2041–2070), at a very high resolution (about 8 km) over the region of Israel. A pronounced increase in the mean temperature was predicted (mainly in autumn and winter), while the extreme temperature indices projected larger increase in the minimum temperature than the maximum.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices: Using an innovative daily homogenized database in Israel

Yosef

Aguilar

Alpert

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines the 1950–2017 temporal changes in climate extremes in Israel, which is located in the East Mediterranean (EM), a region which suffers from a scarcity of long and reliable datasets. It is well known that most long‐term records are affected by artificial shifts most commonly caused by station relocation, instrumental modification and local environmental changes. Therefore, for the first time, a thorough homogenization (detection and correction) routine was developed and implemented in the long‐term records. Consequently, a new daily adjusted dataset has been generated, including 34 temperature stations and 60 precipitation stations. Based on this comprehensive dataset, 38 extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and the Expert Team on Sector‐specific Climate Indices have been calculated. These indices will help various sectors to plan properly mitigation actions and adaptation for climate change, in addition to facilitating future studies for the EM. The results showed highly significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from the daily minimum temperature (TN, 1950–2017), whereas the maximum temperature (TX) exhibited a similar increasing magnitude of the TN (~0.55°C/decade) in the last 30 years. The warming trends, which are non‐monotonic, seem to have been particularly strong since the early 1990s. The coastal area is characterized by higher heat stress during the nighttime, while mountains exhibit a strong tendency towards increasing temperatures during the noon hours. A reduction in the total precipitation amount and in the number of wet days with a tendency towards more intense wet days was found. Although all the regional trends of the precipitation indices were not statistically significant (p ≤ .05), they showed a fine spatial coherence.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices: Using an innovative daily homogenized database in Israel

Yosef

Aguilar

Alpert

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…These projected results are in agreement with the findings of Ziv et al (), who showed a reduction in observed precipitation over Israel for the period 1975–2010, though being significant only in spring. This is also in accordance with Hochman et al (), who projected seasonal precipitation decrease over Israel for the mid‐21st century (RCP4.5) of ~30–50% in spring and autumn and ~20% in winter, through dynamically downscaling to ~8 km grid spacing, using the COSMO‐CLM regional model. Furthermore, recent studies over Israel have shown that rain gauges can capture the enhancement/reduction in precipitation downwind/upwind of urban areas, respectively (Halfon et al, ; Alpert et al, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Larger decreases are projected for spring and autumn (27–37% reductions at the end of the century according to RCP8.5) with respect to winter precipitation (25–31%), mostly for the hydrologic basins of the Sea of Galilee (SG), the Coast (CO), and the Mountains (YA) and less for the Western Galilee (WG) (Table S3; weather regime downscaling). The stronger decrease projected for the SG, the coast and the mountains basins reinforces earlier results (Hochman et al ), which found that the WG basin would be less affected, in terms of precipitation reductions, than the other basins of Israel. Nevertheless, this is an alarming outcome, since the important aquifers of Israel are located in the above‐mentioned three hydrologic basins and the most important are the SG and the Mountains basins.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This suggests the strong control that greenhouse gases may have on the seasonal precipitation in Israel. It is found that the decrease in spring and autumn precipitation is projected to be stronger than the decrease in winter, which fits earlier findings (Ziv et al , Hochman et al ). The larger reduction in the transitional seasons may be a result of a poleward shift of the subtropical highs, toward the Mediterranean Basin, as a part of the expansion of the Hadley cell due to global warming (Lu et al, ; Seidel et al, ; Johanson and Fu, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel

Hochman

Kunin

Alpert

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Global climate models provide only partial information on local‐scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between −200 and ~1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be ~22 and ~37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be ~10–20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain‐bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. The areas with the largest reductions in seasonal precipitation are found over the central mountains, the Mediterranean coastal area, and the Sea of Galilee hydrologic basins, which are the main fresh‐water aquifers and reservoirs of Israel. The statistical downscaling methods applied in this study can be easily transferred to other regions where long‐term data sets of observed precipitation are available. This study and others may serve as a basis for priority and policy setting toward better climate adaptation with associated uncertainties related to the methods used and nonstationary of the climate system.

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“…This 22 study focuses on the small rockpool shrimp Palaemon elegans (Rathke 1837). P. 23 elegans is native to the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and the East Atlantic coast, 24 ranging from Norway in the north to Namibia in the south. It inhabits coastal tidepools, 25 shallow rocky areas, submerged vegetated areas, lagoons, estuaries and man-made Mańkucka, 2010;Tsurnamal, 1963).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High thermal plasticity and vulnerability in extreme environments at the warm distributional edge: the case of a tidepool shrimp

Amsalem

Rilov

2020

Preprint

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1Climate change threatens the resilience of species, especially at their warm 2 distributional edge in extreme environments. However, not much is known about the 3 thermal vulnerability of marine intertidal species at this edge. We investigated the 4 thermal vulnerability of the tidepool shrimp, Palaemon elegans in the fast-warming 5 southeastern Mediterranean, its warm distributional edge. Tidepool organisms 6 experience strong and fast thermal fluctuations. This might make them more resilient 7 to change, but also bring them closer to their thermal limits during extreme conditions. 8To test the shrimp's resilience, we tested three hypotheses: (1) P. elegance in the 9 southeast Mediterranean has higher critical thermal maximum (CTMax) than in cooler 10 regions, (2) the shrimp possess seasonal acclimatization, but (3) long exposure to 11 extreme summer temperatures might erode its thermal performance making it 12 vulnerable to future climate change. We characterized the shrimp's thermal 13 environment and population dynamics, determined CTMax and tested diverse 14 physiological performance attributes (respiration, digestion, activity, growth) under a 15 wide range of temperatures during winter and summer. P. elegans has a wide optimum 16 performance range between 20-30°C during summer and its CTMax is 38.1°C, higher 17 than its Atlantic counterparts. However, its warming tolerance is only 0.3°C, indicating 18 low capacity for dealing with further warming in pools compared to northeast Atlantic 19 populations that have wider tolerance. Prolonged exposure to current mean summer 20values in open water (~ 32°C) would also significantly reduce its performance and 21 increase mortality. This suggests that its population viability may be reduced under 22 continuous regional warming and intensification of extreme events. 23 24

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High‐resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO‐CLM

Cited by 51 publications

References 65 publications

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices: Using an innovative daily homogenized database in Israel

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices: Using an innovative daily homogenized database in Israel

Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel

High thermal plasticity and vulnerability in extreme environments at the warm distributional edge: the case of a tidepool shrimp

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