High School Dropout, Resource Attainment, and Criminal Convictions

Abstract

Objectives: To examine the effect of high-school dropout on subsequent criminal convictions and how post-dropout resource attainment in terms of education and employment may modify such an effect. Methods: Propensity score matching (PSM) using administrative register data covering two full Swedish birth cohorts is employed to assess the effect of dropout on convictions. Event history analysis is used to examine the modifying effect of subsequent resource attainment. Results: The PSM analysis reveals an effect of dropout on convictions for men, whereas no evidence of such an effect is found for women. Returning to school after dropout significantly reduces the crime-inducing effect of dropout among men. Finding occupation after dropout also reduces the risk for criminal conviction, but does so independently of the effect of dropout. Conclusion: Since resource attainment after the dropout event modifies the effect on criminal convictions it is concluded that policies such as life-long learning strategies promoting opportunities for a "second chance" may, besides their intended consequences, also have crime preventive side effects.

Does It Take a School? Revisiting the Influence of First Arrest on Subsequent Delinquency and Educational Attainment in a Tolerant Educational Background

“…The importance of school and educational attainment in reducing crime has been documented in previous studies (Aaltonen, Kivivuori, and Martikainen 2011; Berthelon and Kruger 2011; Hjalmarsson, Holmlund, and Lindquist 2015; Meghir, Palme, and Schnabel 2012). For instance, drawing the Swedish sample, Bäckman (2017) identified crime-inducing effects of dropping out of high school but found a significant negative effect of returning to school on crime, which was interpreted as an unintended consequence of Sweden’s lifelong learning strategy.…”

“…Education fever (Lee and Larson 2000; Seth 2002; Sorensen 1994) in South Korea may minimize educational damages of arrestees by giving a “second chance” to youths. Even if youths stumble at one point and/or deviate from their usual route, additional opportunities provided by society may allow them to rectify their astray course and return to a prosocial path (Bäckman 2017). Whether intended or not, the tolerant South Korean school system seems to cut the loop of cumulative disadvantages and give youth another chance at following prosocial trajectories.…”

Pushed out of the education system: using a natural experiment to evaluate consequences for boys

“…Not surprisingly, there is a large criminological literature evaluating the effects of, for example, dropout from education on subsequent crime. In general, these dropout studies support evidence of the education-crime link (e.g., Bäckman 2017;Elliott and Voss 1974;Farrington et al 1986;Thornberry et al 1985), although a few studies find more ambiguous results (Bachman et al 1978;Jarjoura 1993) or no long-term effect of dropout on crime (Sweeten et al 2009). Missing from these dropout studies, however, is the question of the crime-reducing benefits of enrolling in education.…”

“…This choice of sample is based on the following considerations: First, we include boys only, as criminal charges are measured during a 12-month window, and the crime rates of girls have too little variation to allow estimation of separate statistical models for girls (see the "Discussion" section for further considerations regarding limitations and future research). Other empirical studies which examine the effects of education on criminal behavior find substantially larger effects for males than females (Bennett 2018;Hjalmarsson et al 2015;Machin et al 2012), and they find that dropping out of high school has no effects for females (Bäckman 2017). Thus, we could risk underestimating the policy effect on crime for boys by estimating compound effects for boys and girls, which is another reason why we focus on boys only in this study.…”

“…According to general strain theory, when others prevent someone from achieving their expected positively valued goal, the resulting strain may cause feelings of anger, disappointment, and frustration, which can result in criminal behavior-especially among adolescents and if the expected goal is realistic to achieve (Agnew 1992;Agnew et al 2002). Some empirical studies investigating strain as a potential explanation of the education-crime link find support of strain theories (e.g., Bäckman 2017;Elliott and Voss 1974;Jarjoura 1993), while other studies find that other explanations are more plausible (e.g., Thornberry et al 1985). We expect that if the reform prevents low-achieving boys with vocational expectations from enrolling in VET, these boys will suffer emotional strain, which in turn may lead to criminal behavior.…”