Higher Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosol Than Greenhouse Gases

Cao, Jian; Wang, Hao; Wang, Bin; Zhao, Haikun; Wang, Chao; Zhu, Xiaoyan

doi:10.1029/2022gl100270

Cited by 17 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…These current "South Flood-North Drought" and "West Drought-East Flood" ("West" means South Asia and "East" means South China) patterns may be partly exacerbated (East Asia) or alleviated (South Asia) in our projections with sole decreased albedo over the TP. Note that the current TP surface darkening was not enough to offset the decline in ASM precipitation over the last decades, which is mainly due to increasing anthropogenic aerosols 44 . While, the projected surface darkening over the TP, together with an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a concomitant reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, would ultimately lead to a revival and enhancement of Asian monsoon precipitation 44,45 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Note that the current TP surface darkening was not enough to offset the decline in ASM precipitation over the last decades, which is mainly due to increasing anthropogenic aerosols 44 . While, the projected surface darkening over the TP, together with an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a concomitant reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, would ultimately lead to a revival and enhancement of Asian monsoon precipitation 44,45 . The local and tele-connected climatic impacts of surface darkening over the TP under the future warming scenario are further quantified in our study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

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Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening

et al. 2023

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Despite knowledge of the presence of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in reorganizing large-scale atmospheric circulation, it remains unclear how surface albedo darkening over TP will impact local glaciers and remote Asian monsoon systems. Here, we use a coupled land-atmosphere global climate model and a glacier model to address these questions. Under a high-emission scenario, TP surface albedo darkening will increase local temperature by 0.24 K by the end of this century. This warming will strengthen the elevated heat pump of TP, increasing South Asian monsoon precipitation while exacerbating the current “South Flood-North Drought” pattern over East Asia. The albedo darkening-induced climate change also leads to an accompanying TP glacier volume loss of 6.9%, which further increases to 25.2% at the equilibrium, with a notable loss in western TP. Our findings emphasize the importance of land-surface change responses in projecting future water resource availability, with important implications for water management policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening

et al. 2023

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“…Referring to the existing researches 43,44 , the effect of natural forcing on the EASM is insignificant relative to the anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases forcing. And the sum of precipitation anomalies in Hist-aer and Hist-GHG experiments is almost identical to those in Historical experiment 45 . Thus, we…”

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 54%

Influence of aerosol forcing on the seasonal march of East Asia summer monsoon

Guo,

Wang,

Gui

et al. 2024

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Focusing on the anthropogenic aerosols effects on the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) progression, we found that aerosols delay the northward progression of EASM by one pentad in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (PD1: pentads 25-35) and the North-Northeast China (PD3: pentads 38-42). However, aerosols have minimal impact on the seasonal march of EASM over the Yangtze-Huai River basin (PD2: pentads 36-37). In PD1 and PD3, aerosols reduce sea-land temperature differences. Also, a southward shift in the westerly jet causing lower-level north winds, which weakens the EASM in PD3. The delayed EASM progress shows its weakness in PD1 and PD3. While in PD2, EASM intensity weakens without affecting its northward progression. Aerosols, though affecting the position and intensity of Western Pacific Subtropical High, minimally influence its northward movement speed, hence no effect on the seasonal march of EASM in PD2.

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“…Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative budget, climate, and hydrological cycle by reflecting or absorbing solar radiation, changing the optical properties of clouds, and also by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. An increase in anthropogenic aerosols has been attributed as the major reason for the decline of Northern Hemispheric summer monsoon strength from the 1950s to 1980s (Cao et al, 2022), due to its dimming effect.…”

Section: Evidence For Tipping Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Loriani,

Aksenov,

Armstrong McKay

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. In this review, we assess scientific evidence for tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. The warming of oceans, modified wind patterns and increasing freshwater influx from melting ice hold the potential to disrupt established circulation patterns. The literature provides evidence for oceanic tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), and the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, which may collapse under warmer and ‘fresher’ (i.e. less salty) conditions. A slowdown or collapse of these oceanic circulations would have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the climate system and could lead to strong impacts on human societies and the biosphere. Among the atmospheric circulation systems considered, we classify the West African monsoon as a tipping system. Its abrupt changes in the past have led to vastly different vegetation states of the Sahara (e.g. “green Sahara” states). Evidence about tipping of the monsoon systems over South America and Asia is limited however, there are multiple potential sources of destabilisation, including large-scale deforestation, air pollution, and shifts in other circulation patterns (in particular the AMOC). Although theoretically possible, there is currently little indication for tipping points in tropical clouds or mid-latitude atmospheric circulations. Similarly, tipping towards a more extreme or persistent state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently not fully supported by models and observations. While the tipping thresholds for many of these systems are uncertain, tipping could have severe socio-environmental consequences. Stabilising Earth’s climate (along with minimising other environmental pressures, like aerosol pollution and ecosystem degradation) is critical for reducing the likelihood of reaching tipping points in the ocean-atmosphere system.

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Higher Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosol Than Greenhouse Gases

Cited by 17 publications

References 37 publications

Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening

Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening

Influence of aerosol forcing on the seasonal march of East Asia summer monsoon

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

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