Highly comparative time series analysis of oxygen saturation and heart rate to predict respiratory outcomes in extremely preterm infants

Abstract

Objective: Highly comparative time series analysis (HCTSA) is a novel approach involving massive feature extraction using publicly available code from many disciplines. The Prematurity-Related Ventilatory Control (Pre-Vent) observational multicenter prospective study collected bedside monitor data from >700 extremely preterm infants to identify physiologic features that predict respiratory outcomes. We calculated a subset of 33 HCTSA features on >7M 10-minute windows of oxygen saturation (SPO2) and heart rate (HR) from the PreVent cohort to quantify predictive performance. This subset included representatives previously identified using unsupervised clustering on >3500 HCTSA algorithms. Performance of each feature was measured by individual area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) at various days of life and binary respiratory outcomes. We hypothesized that the best HCTSA algorithms would compare favorably to optimal PreVent physiologic predictor IH90_DPE (duration per event of intermittent hypoxemia events below 90%).

Main Results: The top HCTSA features were from a cluster of algorithms associated with the autocorrelation of SPO2 time series and identified low frequency patterns of desaturation as high risk. These features had comparable performance to and were highly correlated with IH90_DPE but perhaps measure the physiologic status of an infant in a more robust way that warrants further investigation. The top HR HCTSA features were symbolic transformation measures that had previously been identified as strong predictors of neonatal mortality. HR metrics were only important predictors at early days of life which was likely due to the larger proportion of infants whose outcome was death by any cause. A simple HCTSA model using 3 top features outperformed IH90_DPE at day of life 7 (.778 versus .729) but was essentially equivalent at day of life 28 (.849 versus .850). These results validated the utility of a representative HCTSA approach but also provides additional evidence supporting IH90\_DPE as an optimal predictor of respiratory outcomes.