Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

Pepi, Adam; Grof‐Tisza, Patrick; Holyoak, Marcel; Karban, Richard

doi:10.1101/2021.12.17.473236

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…We estimated A. virginalis caterpillar abundance at 12 habitat patches (sites) at the Bodega Marine Reserve in Sonoma County, California (Figure 2) from 2007 to 2021 (Pepi, 2023). Censuses were conducted in the last week of March each year by counting the number of caterpillars observed on haphazardly selected Lupinus arboreus bushes of similar size at each patch ( n = 10 per patch in 2007–2011; n = 15 in 2011–2019; n = 20 in 2020–2021; detailed methods in Karban et al, 2012).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Biological data and code are available in Pepi (2023) on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7512803. Climate data (Bodega Marine Laboratory, 2021) are available from Bodega Marine Laboratory, with daily air temperature and rainfall data downloaded for all the study years (2007–2021) from https://boon.ucdavis.edu/data-access/products/met/bml_air_temperature_daily and https://boon.ucdavis.edu/data-access/products/met/bml_rain_fall_daily), respectively.…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial habitat heterogeneity influences host–pathogen dynamics in a patchy population of Ranchman's tiger moth

Pepi,

Pan,

Grof‐Tisza

et al. 2023

Ecology

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Host‐pathogen dynamics are influenced by many factors that vary locally, but models of disease rarely consider dynamics across spatially heterogeneous environments. In addition, theory predicts that dispersal will influence host‐pathogen dynamics of populations that are linked, though this has not been examined empirically in natural systems. We examined the spatial dynamics of a patchy population of tiger moths and its baculovirus pathogen, in which habitat type and weather influence dynamics. Theoretical models of host‐baculovirus dynamics predict that such variation in dynamics between habitat types could be driven by a range of factors, of which we predict two are likely operating in this system: a) differences in environmental persistence of pathogens or b) differences in host intrinsic rates of increase. We used time series models and monitored infection rates of hosts to characterize population and disease dynamics and distinguish between these possibilities. We also examined the role of host dispersal (connectivity) and weather as important contributors to dynamics, using time‐series models and experiments. We found that population growth rate was higher, delayed density‐dependence was weaker, and long‐period oscillations had lower amplitudes in high quality habitat patches. Infection rate was higher on average in high quality habitat, and this was likely driven by higher mean population densities and not differences in pathogen persistence in different habitats (delayed density‐dependence). Time‐series modelling and experiments also showed an interactive effect of temperature and precipitation on moth population growth rates (likely caused by variation in host plant quality and quantity), and an effect of connectivity. Our results showed that spatial heterogeneity, connectivity, climate, and their interactions were important in driving host‐baculovirus dynamics. In particular, our study found that connected patches and spatial heterogeneity generated differences in dynamics that only partially aligned with theoretical predictions.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial habitat heterogeneity influences host–pathogen dynamics in a patchy population of Ranchman's tiger moth

Pepi,

Pan,

Grof‐Tisza

et al. 2023

Ecology

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“…All data and code associated with this study are available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo. 6354208 [44].…”

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confidence: 99%

Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

et al. 2022

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Dispersal is a key driver of spatial population dynamics. Dispersal behaviour may be shaped by many factors, such as mate-finding, the spatial distribution of resources, or wind and currents, yet most models of spatial dynamics assume random dispersal. We examined the spatial dynamics of a day-flying moth species ( Arctia virginalis ) that forms mating aggregations on hilltops (hilltopping) based on long-term adult and larval population censuses. Using time-series models, we compared spatial population dynamics resulting from empirically founded hilltop-based connectivity indices and modelled the interactive effects of temperature, precipitation and density dependence. Model comparisons supported hilltop-based connectivity metrics including hilltop elevation over random connectivity, suggesting an effect of hilltopping behaviour on dynamics. We also found strong interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on dynamics. Simulations based on fitted time-series models showed lower patch occupancy and regional synchrony, and higher colonization and extinction rates when hilltopping was included, with potential implications for the probability of persistence of the patch network. Overall, our results show the potential for dispersal behaviour to have important effects on spatial population dynamics and persistence, and we advocate the inclusion of such non-random dispersal in metapopulation models.

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Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

Cited by 2 publications

References 41 publications

Spatial habitat heterogeneity influences host–pathogen dynamics in a patchy population of Ranchman's tiger moth

Spatial habitat heterogeneity influences host–pathogen dynamics in a patchy population of Ranchman's tiger moth

Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

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