Hindcast of extreme sea states in North Atlantic extratropical storms

Abstract

This study examines the variability of freak wave parameters around the eye of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The data was obtained from a hindcast performed with the WAve Model (WAM) model forced by the wind fields of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The hindcast results were validated against the wave buoys and satellite altimetry data showing a good correlation. The variability of different wave parameters was assessed by applying the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique on the hindcast data. From the EOF analysis, it can be concluded that the first empirical orthogonal function (V1) accounts for greater share of variability of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), directional spreading (SPR) and Benjamin-Feir index (BFI). The share of variance in V1 varies for cyclone and variable: for the 2nd storm and Hs V1 contains 96 % of variance while for the 3rd storm and BFI V1 accounts only for 26 % of variance. The spatial patterns of V1 show that the variables are distributed around the cyclones centres mainly in a lobular fashion.

Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow water: a case study in the southern North Sea

“…Alber (1978) derived a stability criterion for such narrow-banded random waves, which later became known as the Benjamin-Feir index (BFI) (Janssen, 2003). A large BFI corresponds to enhanced nonlinearity (de León and Soares, 2014) and has been suggested as an indicator for enhanced rogue wave probability in deep water (Gramstad and Trulsen, 2007). The NLS equation has some exact solutions (known as breathers) that explain the modulational instability, which have been suggested as an analytical model of rogue waves in a unidirectional case (Dysthe and Trulsen, 1999).…”

Impact of extratropical cyclone intensity and speed on the extreme wave trends in the Atlantic Ocean

“…Management and maintenance of ships, offshore and coastal structures depend upon knowing the current extreme wave climate and its trends (Bitner-Gregersen et al, 2018;Bernardino et al, 2021). In mid to high latitudes, the main drivers of wave climate are the extratropical cyclones, which are known by their strong winds and large fetch (e.g., da Rocha et al, 2004; Ponce de León and Guedes Soares, 2014Soares, , 2015Campos et al, 2018; Ponce de León and Bettencourt, 2021). In this context, this present study explores the relation between the extreme wave climate and extratropical storm tracks in the Atlantic Ocean, providing a new perspective of the changes in the extreme wave events forced by these atmospheric systems.…”

Karadeniz’in fırtınalılığındaki uzun dönemli (1979-2019) değişimler

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