Hindsight Bias: A Primer for Motivational Researchers

Pezzo, Mark V.

doi:10.1111/j.1751-9004.2011.00381.x

Cited by 34 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 100 publications

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“…Hoch and Loewenstein (1989) argued that the presence of hindsight bias is a sign that learning is taking place. Although research showed that retrospective bias is rather small in effect size (Pezzo 2011) and each event was coded independently by two experts, we cannot rule out the possibility of retrospective bias (Dacin et al 2010), which might have informed the respondents' evaluation of their past experiences. We recommend that future studies collect and analyze longitudinal data to overcome this limitation.…”

Section: Limitations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The early bird catches the worm: an empirical analysis of imprinting in social entrepreneurship

2020

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Understanding the antecedents of social entrepreneurship is critical for unleashing the potential of social entrepreneurship and thus for tackling social problems. While research has provided valuable insights into imprinting of the conventional entrepreneur, research on differences between social and conventional entrepreneurship suggests that social entrepreneurs evolve differently. Using survey data of 148 social entrepreneurs, we draw on the concepts of imprinting and critical incident recognition as a framework for understanding how social entrepreneur's childhood experiences and parental exposure to social entrepreneurship affect social entrepreneurial activity in adulthood. First, our results suggest that social entrepreneurs are imprinted by their childhood experiences but not by parental exposure to social entrepreneurship. Second, imprints tend to persist over time when they are linked to critical incidents regarding social entrepreneurship. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of imprinting mechanisms in social entrepreneurship contexts and highlight the importance of making examples of social entrepreneurship tangible to children.

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Section: Limitations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The early bird catches the worm: an empirical analysis of imprinting in social entrepreneurship

2020

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“…Louie, Rajan, and Sibley (2007) reported a number of further real-world occurrences of hindsight bias and discussed their potential consequences (cf. Pezzo, 2011;Roese & Vohs, 2012). 1 Generally, hindsight bias can be viewed as an instance of retroactive interference, where learning new information (here, the CJ) changes what people report when asked about their memory for old information (here, the OJ).…”

Section: Hindsight Biasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study

Pohl

Bayen

Arnold

et al. 2018

Journal of Cognition and Development

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Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one's prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research has suggested that age-related differences in hindsight bias may be based on age-related differences in inhibitory control. We tested whether this explanation held for 3 cognitive processes assumed to underlie hindsight bias: recollection bias, reconstruction bias, and the tendency to adopt newly acquired knowledge as old. We performed a typical hindsight-bias study with 9-year-olds, 12-year-olds, young adults, and older adults. Participants first gave numerical judgments to difficult almanac questions. They later received the correct judgments for some of the questions while trying to recall their own earlier judgments. To experimentally test the impact of inhibitory control, the correct judgment was presented either in a weak or in a strong manner that was difficult to ignore. Hindsight bias was larger in the strong condition than in the weak condition and followed a U-shaped life-span pattern with young adults showing the least hindsight bias in line with an inhibitory-control explanation. Yet, the mixture of underlying processes differed considerably between age groups, so inhibitory control did not suffice as a sole explanation of age differences.

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“…Specifically, individuals are assumed to exhibit hindsight effects because learning about the actual outcome leads to an updating of their knowledge about the world; they are thus a by-product or the consequence of learning from feedback (for summaries of the views on hindsight effects and learning, see Nestler & Egloff, 2011;Pezzo, 2011). As we build on this latter interpretation throughout this article, we use the more neutral term hindsight effect instead of the more common term hindsight bias.…”

Section: Hindsight Biasmentioning

confidence: 96%

An integrative lens model approach to bias and accuracy in human inferences: Hindsight effects and knowledge updating in personality judgments.

Nestler¹,

Egloff²,

Küfner³

et al. 2012

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

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The present article integrates research on the accurate inference of personality traits with process models of hindsight bias (the tendency to exaggerate in hindsight what one had said in foresight). Specifically, the article suggests a new model that integrates assumptions of the lens model on accurate personality judgments and accounts that view hindsight effects as a by-product of knowledge updating. We suggest 3 processes that have the potential to explain the occurrence of hindsight effects in personality judgments: (a) changes in an individual's cue perceptions, (b) changes in the utilization of more valid cues, and (c) changes in the consistency with which cue knowledge is applied. In 2 studies (N1 = 91, N2 = 93), participants were presented with target pictures and were asked to judge each target's levels of the Big Five. Thereafter, they received feedback and had to recall their original judgments. Results show that there were clear hindsight effects for all 5 personality dimensions. Importantly, we found evidence that both the utilization of more valid cues and changes in cue perceptions--but not changes in the consistency with which cue knowledge is applied--account for the hindsight effects. Implications of these results for models explaining hindsight effects, the inference of personality judgments, and the accuracy of these inferences are discussed.

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Hindsight Bias: A Primer for Motivational Researchers

Cited by 34 publications

References 100 publications

The early bird catches the worm: an empirical analysis of imprinting in social entrepreneurship

The early bird catches the worm: an empirical analysis of imprinting in social entrepreneurship

Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study

An integrative lens model approach to bias and accuracy in human inferences: Hindsight effects and knowledge updating in personality judgments.

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