Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.

Arkes, Hal R.; Wortmann, Robert L.; Saville, Paul D.; Harkness, Allan R.

doi:10.1037/0021-9010.66.2.252

Cited by 289 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Medical decision making research has sought to uncover some of the parallels between cognitive biases which exist in the non-medical world and in the medical world (Detmer et al, 1978;Elstein et al, 1978;Dawson and Arkes, 1987;Elstein, 1988; for an inventory of medical decision-making biases, see Hershberger et al, 1994). Some of the biases that have been shown to infl uence medical judgment include the omission bias (Asch et al, 1994), availability bias (Poses and Anthony, 1991), hindsight bias (Arkes et al, 1981;Dawson et al, 1988), a bias to ignore negative evidence when attempting to synthesize information (Mazur and Hickam, 1990), framing effects (McNeil et al, 1984) and outcome bias (Gruppen et al, 1994).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rationality in medical treatment decisions: is there a sunk-cost effect?

Bornstein

Emler

Chapman

1999

Social Science & Medicine

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rationality in medical treatment decisions: is there a sunk-cost effect?

Bornstein

Emler

Chapman

1999

Social Science & Medicine

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“…While these studies focused on biased perceptions of trait standing, it is conceivable that that this technique might help with other biases that may in fact be characterized by selective testing over an overly positive hypothesis. The hindsight bias (Arkes et al 1981) and the illusion of control (Langer 1975) may have particular promise in this regard.…”

Section: Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

Tanner

2009

J Consum Res

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Individuals tend to make unrealistically optimistic self assessments about themselves and their future behavior. While little studied in marketing, unrealistic optimism by consumers may have negative consequences for both marketers and consumers. This dissertation proposes and explores a selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic optimism. Specifically, I propose that consumers adopt the tentative hypothesis that they will behave in an ideal fashion when predicting their future behavior. They then selectively test this hypothesis by accessing information consistent with it, with the ultimate consequence being unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior.To validate this theory I use the following experimental paradigm. I have individuals first provide an idealized estimate for the behavior of interest (e.g., In an ideal world, how often would you exercise next week?) and then provide a second estimate (e.g., How often will you exercise next week?). The idea here is that by making the idealized nature of the ideal behavior salient consumers will be less likely to test a hypothesis of ideal behavior when subsequently providing an estimate. In a series of ten studies, I find that prior consideration of idealistic performance does indeed temper optimism in subsequent self-assessments (henceforth post-ideal estimates). Specifically, post-ideal estimates are free of relative optimism versus expectations of others v behaviors, are more reflective of actual past behavior, and better predict actual future behavior. Furthermore, this attenuation of optimism is mediated by increased consideration of realistic thoughts and is moderated by both expertise and decisiveness.All of these results are consistent with selective hypothesis testing being a key driver of unrealistic optimism. Additionally I demonstrate that the debiasing effect of my method extends from behaviors to above average (and in some cases below average) views of traits and abilities. As such my work raises the possibility that selective hypothesis testing underlies a wide variety of self assessment biases.Having found strong support for my selective hypothesis testing view of unrealistic optimism, I also explore the potential consequences that unrealistic optimism may have for consumer decisions. In particular, I demonstrate that unrealistically optimistic predictions of future behavior appear to be associated with greater willingness to pay for socially desirable products (e.g., treadmills) and that attenuation of such optimism can reduce willingness to pay. Some researchers have argued that unrealistic optimism with respect to future behavior causes people to make vice choices in the present because they expect to make virtuous choices in the future (Kahn and Dhar 2007). If so, then the current research suggests one way to help consumers from falling into the trap of justifying vice behaviors with optimistically held views about future actions.vi

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“…The bias is sensitive to task difficulty-it is greater for difficult than it is for easy items; it is greater for events initially judged to be least plausible (Arkes, Wortmann, Saville, & Harkness, 1981;Fischhoff, 1977;Wood, 1978)-and it is greater when evidence supporting the given outcome is more easily brought to mind (Sanna, Schwarz, & Small, 2002). Hindsight bias has been studied extensively in the cognitive domain, with broadly ranging types of events, for example, outcomes of historical events, psychiatric cases, scientific experiments, consumer purchases, sporting events, economic decisions, election outcomes, medical and legal cases, and answers to almanac trivia questions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The "Saw-It-All-Along" Effect: Demonstrations of Visual Hindsight Bias.

Harley

Carlsen²,

Loftus³

2004

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cogni

124

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The authors address whether a hindsight bias exists for visual perception tasks. In 3 experiments, participants identified degraded celebrity faces as they resolved to full clarity (Phase 1). Following Phase 1, participants either recalled the level of blur present at the time of Phase 1 identification or predicted the level of blur at which a peer would make an accurate identification. In all experiments, participants overestimated identification performance of naive observers. Visual hindsight bias was greater for more familiar faces-those shown in both phases of the experiment-and was not reduced following instructions to participants to avoid the bias. The authors propose a fluency-misattribution theory to account for the bias and discuss implications for medical malpractice litigation and eyewitness testimony.

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Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses.

Cited by 289 publications

References 6 publications

Rationality in medical treatment decisions: is there a sunk-cost effect?

Rationality in medical treatment decisions: is there a sunk-cost effect?

Unrealistically Optimistic Consumers: A Selective Hypothesis Testing Account for Optimism in Predictions of Future Behavior

The "Saw-It-All-Along" Effect: Demonstrations of Visual Hindsight Bias.

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