Historical Assessment and Mapping of Human Plague in Kazakhstan: a Meta-analysis of Plague Epidemiology

Abstract

Understanding the historical assessment of plague in Kazakhstan is essential for early warning and decision support for effective health disaster management. For this purpose, this study evaluated historical data on plague from 1926 to 2003 in Kazakhstan using descriptive-analytical methods. The results of the study showed that between 1926 and 2003, there were 565 human plague cases in 82 different outbreaks. Cases that occurred in different regions include Almaty (32.22%), Aktobe (1.59%), Atyrau (4.42%), Mangistau (21.24%), Kyzylorda (40.53%) oblasts. The study showed that a higher percentage of cases were recorded before public health in Kazakhstan began using antibiotics and prophylactic measures against plague (1947-1948). Large outbreaks were found to have occurred in 1926, 1929, 1945, 1947 and 1948, accounting for about 80.7% of human-to-human transmission. Other forms of plague transmission include flea bites, cutting and skinning camels, wild animals, aerosolization, and rodent bites. The study also showed that the age range of patients affected by plague ranged from 0 to 86 years and was divided into two genders, including 49.9% males and 50.1% females, respectively. During the study period, there were bubonic (12.57%), bubonic septicemia (5.84%), bubonic pneumonia (1.06%), pulmonary (72.4%), secondary pneumonia (0.35%), septic (2.83%), cutaneous (0.18%), cutaneous bubonic (0.88%), tonsillar (0.35%), tonsillar bubonic (0.18%) forms and no clinical form (3.36%) data cases. There were cases of plague infection from person to person. The incidence was 0.29 per 10,000 people. The risk of human infection with plague is likely to increase with the expansion of anthropogenic areas in areas where plague foci exist in Kazakhstan. Increased awareness is needed for rapid diagnosis and treatment.