Historical changes in lake ice‐out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850–2000

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; James, Ivan C.; Huntington, Thomas G.

doi:10.1002/joc.857

Cited by 127 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…4) are consistent with changes found by others (Livingstone 1997(Livingstone , 1999Magnuson et al 2000;Hodgkins et al 2002;Weyhenmeyer et al 2005;Duguay et al 2006;Korhonen 2006;Livingstone et al 2010). The mean trends in measures of lake ice phenology were consistently in the direction of later freezes, earlier breakups, and shorter durations in each of the three time periods (Table 1) although some trends were not significant based on Theil-Sen slopes or a less powerful test that eliminated spatial autocorrelation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

et al. 2011

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Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855-6 to 2004-5 and 1905-6 to 2004-5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975-6 to 2004-5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100-and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

et al. 2011

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“…The records of the last two centuries of ice break-up dates on the rivers in the Northern Hemisphere provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier break-up (Magnuson et al 2000). Several studies have analyzed ice regime trends for inland waters, since easily identifiable parameters describing ice break-up have been recorded for a long period of time (Beltaos 1997;Benson et al 2000;Likens 2000;Arai 2000;Hodgkins et al 2002). These studies have clearly shown long-term changes in climate, and have also argued that natural processes and the ice regime of surface waters in the Northern Europe are related to the changes in NAO (Yoo and D'Odorico 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Long term changes in ice and discharge regime of rivers in the Baltic region in relation to climatic variability

2009

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The river ice regime is considered a sensitive indicator of climate change and within this study long term changes (in case of River Daugava starting from 1530, but for other studied rivers starting from first half of twentieth century) river ice regimes in the Baltic region have been studied. The ice cover duration on the rivers (17 rivers) in the Baltic countries and Belarus has decreased during the recent decades. In addition to this, long term observational records of ice break on the rivers of the studied region exhibit a pattern of periodic changes in the intensity of ice regime. Both the ice regime and the seasonal river discharge are shown to be strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation processes over North Atlantic that manifests through close correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation index.

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“…Although coherent across the state, the records show some variation in the timing of major changes. Starting in the late 1800s, ice-out dates occurred progressively earlier for Sebago Lake, and are about 30 days earlier (Hodgkins et al 2002), with the greatest decline between 1875 and 1930 ( Fig. 2).…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

“…All three lakes experienced the same regional declines in wind speed (Pryor et al 2009) and progressively earlier ice-out dates (Hodgkins et al 2002), but differ in morphometry. This allowed us to assess whether within-lake processes in these large lakes influence the links between climate and diatom responses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating planktonic diatom response to climate change across three lakes with differing morphometry

2016

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We applied a diatom-based thermal stratification index to sediment cores from three lakes in the northeast USA to evaluate the influence of lake morphometry and within-lake processes on diatom responses to climate change. The three lakes all had surface area [5 km 2 and experienced the same regional declines in wind speed and progressively earlier ice-out dates, but differed in morphometry, particularly surface area and mean depth. We coupled this paleolimnological approach with contemporary ecological measurements to validate the use of two indicator species (Aulacoseira subarctica (O. Müller) Haworth and Discostella stelligera (Cleve & Grunow) Houk & Klee) in the stratification index. D. stelligera was abundant during stratified conditions in Tunk Lake and Sebago Lake, but not in Lobster Lake. Diatom-inferred stratification shifted to shallower and/ or longer duration in Tunk Lake starting in the late nineteenth century, and continued to become shallower over much of the twentieth century. A shift to shallower and/or longer duration was also apparent in Sebago Lake starting around 1850, after which the index suggested little change, even though ice-out occurred 30 days earlier in 2000 than in 1807 and wind speed began to decline in the 1960s. This lake has very slow sedimentation rates, experiences regular seiches, and has D. stelligera present during circulation and stratified periods. These factors may smooth stratification-driven diatom responses. Contemporary ecological measurements did not support the application of the stratification index in Lobster Lake because D. stelligera bloomed only during spring turnover. In Lobster Lake, the relative abundances of D. stelligera in the sediment record showed some variation over time, were generally lower in periods with earlier iceout in the region, and have been lower since the 1980s. Our results highlight the different responses recorded in the sediments of three large lakes in the same region to climate-driven changes and support the use of indicator species in reconstructing lake thermal stratification patterns when paired with site-specific morphometric and ecological data.

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Historical changes in lake ice‐out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850–2000

Cited by 127 publications

References 23 publications

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

Long term changes in ice and discharge regime of rivers in the Baltic region in relation to climatic variability

Evaluating planktonic diatom response to climate change across three lakes with differing morphometry

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