Historical effects of shocks on inequality: the great leveler revisited

Abstract

Inequality of wealth and its associated power has varied greatly over human history. It is often thought that the main levelers of inequality were natural disasters such as epidemics or earthquakes, and social turmoil such as wars and revolutions. Here we critically review evidence of the effects of such events on inequality from medieval times till the present. We show that in spite of the marked differences in character and direct impact of the shocks we consider, most historical disasters were rather followed by a widening of wealth gaps. This can be understood from the wealth distribution and institutional outlay of these societies at the moment of the shock, which to a large extent shaped both the impact and the institutional measures chosen in response to the crisis. As most societies were characterized by economic and political skewness, the result mostly was a further widening of disparities. Over the centuries, exceptions to this rule have occurred in situations where the ordinary people had strong leverage in shaping the response to the crisis through organizations such as guilds, fraternities, trade unions, cooperatives, and political movements. Our results provide empirical support for the view that in nations where such leverage of ordinary people is weak, the responses to novel crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic may boost inequality.

Social inequalities in mental and physical health derived from the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain beyond SARS-CoV-2 infection

“…Most studies about the impact of crises of all kinds on inequalities -and therefore, health inequalities- have been in the long term, and there is still debate about the role of catastrophes in levelling inequalities or not [ 40 , 41 ]. Health inequalities in COVID-19 incidence and mortality have been widely and consistently documented in Spain and other countries [ 18 , 21 , 42 , 43 ] but, beyond the infectious disease, the COVID-19 crisis needs a short-to-medium term approach to understand how the Government measures and the crisis itself have impacted health inequalities.…”

“…Health inequalities in COVID-19 incidence and mortality have been widely and consistently documented in Spain and other countries [ 18 , 21 , 42 , 43 ] but, beyond the infectious disease, the COVID-19 crisis needs a short-to-medium term approach to understand how the Government measures and the crisis itself have impacted health inequalities. As some authors point out, although there is a consensus on the harmful effect of the crises on inequalities, exceptions occur if there is a period of welfare state expansion, improved health care and empowered people [ 40 , 41 ]. Strong democratic systems with robust deliberative decision-making processes have shown to protect populations against excess deaths by all causes during the COVID-19 pandemic [ 44 ], and universal health coverage and social protection systems protect vulnerable populations worldwide [ 45 ].…”

Naturalists, Catastrophic Pandemics, and the End of Rome in the Age of Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases

“…Some scholars even argued that reduced income inequality might occur after Covid, citing the Justinianic Plague as one of their primary examples. These predictions were walked back within a few months (SCHEIDEL 2020a; SCHEIDEL 2020b; EISENBERG 2021; and now: VAN BAVEL, SCHEFFER 2021). What seems apparent as of this writing is that Covid has had a comparatively lower number of deaths than ancient and medieval pandemics.…”

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

“…Also there seems to be general agreement in the literature that food shortages in past times were not the sole cause of societal collapse, and maybe even more a consequence of societies inability to deal with their problems ( Diamond, 2013 ). Erosion of established systems and resulting lack of loyalty to established political institutions plus an increase in inequalities are all markers of decline ( Turchin, 2007 ; Diamond, 2013 ; Van Bavel and Scheffer, 2021 ). In the interconnected globalized ‘system-of-systems’, ‘a failure in one part could lead to disaster across the whole structure’ ( Centeno et al, 2022 ; p. 61).…”

“…Indeed, it seems there is an optimum level of (in)equality, showing an inverted “U” shaped relationship ( Charles-Coll, 2010 ). In situations where ordinary people are involved in shaping the response to crisis, a further widening of disparities seem to have been prevented ( Van Bavel and Scheffer, 2021 ), and hence this seems a promising avenue in going forward.…”