Historical energy transitions: Speed, prices and system transformation

Abstract

The relatively rare and protracted nature of energy transitions implies that it is vital to look at historical experiences for lessons about how they might unfold in the future.

Further reflections on the temporality of energy transitions: A response to critics

“…to achieve rapid transitions." Fouquet (2016) lends support to this line of argument when he notes that "Crucially, energy transitions are non-deterministic. That is, energy transitions are not inevitable; instead, they depend on a series of actors and forces creating a new path.…”

“…The other is prices, which can also play a critical role in transitions. Both Fouquet (2016) and Bromley (2016) suggest that if one changes the price of a given technology or energy service, then one can directly influence its speed of diffusion. To be clear, we do not want to reduce a transition merely to price-to do so is to succumb to economic determinism.…”

“…Messengers Grubler et al (2016), Smil (2016), Kern and Rogge (2016), Fouquet (2016) and Bromley (2016) rightfully build and challenge some of the arguments presented in the special issue on energy transitions this journal published a few months ago.…”

Actors, networks, and translation hubs: Gas central heating as a rapid socio-technical transition in the United Kingdom

“…The benefits, that is, are largely in controlling the externalities of the system, rather than offering significant mateiral or financial improvements for the consumer. Fouquet (2016) points out that whether or not an energy service offers new characteristics has an impact on speed and scale of transition.…”

Transição energética global e desenvolvimento sustentável: limites e possibilidades no capitalismo contemporâneo

“…Ainda não sabemos a magnitude desse aumento, nem se esse aumento será impulsionado pela energia nuclear, hidrelétrica e/ou as outras renováveis. O que é importante resgatar deste exercício meramente ilustrativo sem pretensões de previsão, e das estimativas de CALDEIRA, JAIN E HOFFERT (2003), são os significativos desafios e saltos que são necessários em matéria energética para estabilizar as concentrações atmosféricas de CO 2 a níveis aceitáveis no futuro(PIELKE et al, 2008).Embora o avanço das tecnologias renováveis pareça lento em função da urgência com que entendemos que devemos atuar para enfrentar as mudanças climáticas, é importante destacar que as transições energéticas globais ao longo da história costumam ser processo de muito longo prazo e não revoluções abruptas(FOUQUET, 2010(FOUQUET, , 2016PEARSON,…”