Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

Abstract

ObjectivesThis work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon.Materials and MethodsOur study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality.ResultsHigh-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400–1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb.ConclusionUsing a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400–1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438–1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved.

A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630

“…The historical literature on Italian and European late medieval and early modern plagues seems to have clearly established that, in contrast to the Black Death and other early plague waves, the disease acquired a social character from the fifteenth century, striking the poor preferentially (Slack 1985;Alfani 2009Alfani , 2013bCohn 2010b). This has been confirmed by recent studies of specific plague outbreaks (Galanaud et al 2015;Whittles and Didelot 2016). Doctors of the early modern period were of the same view (Cohn 2010a).…”

“…The same was found by Cohn and Alfani (2007) for Milan in 1523. For Dijon in 1400 and 1428, Galanaud et al (2015) found that plague had more effect on the richest parts of the city, where most commercial and craft activities were concentrated (as they argue, 'In a city where garbage collection was left to the inhabitants, the proximity of food stocks, crop market, second-hand clothing dealers … and/or an open area used for slaughter … created conditions suitable for rats to pullulate and favored disease transmission by fleas' (p. 20)).…”

“…From a macro-demographic perspective, one such study recently focused on the last great plagues of the seventeenth century, suggesting fundamental differences across Europe, both in the epidemiology and the overall demographic impact of the disease (Alfani 2013a). The research situation is better at the micro level, where recent works have covered such diverse aspects as the household structure of plague mortality and its patterns of transmission (Cohn and Alfani 2007;Whittles and Didelot 2016), the within-city diffusion of plague and the seasonal pattern of mortality (Galanaud et al 2015;Cummins et al 2016), the age and sex structure of excess mortality from plague (Manfredini et al 2002), and the post-crisis 'economic recovery' that went hand in hand with the 'demographic recovery' (Alfani 2010a). However, research on plague has been steady in other fields, like general and global history, history of medicine, and palaeo-biology/palaeo-demography (Cohn 2002(Cohn , 2010aHenderson 2003;Green 2015).…”

Dangers of Noncritical Use of Historical Plague Data

“…In other words, we are not sure that the mentions of plague identified originally by Biraben were in fact plague at all, especially for the medieval period, and as mentioned, we have no way of checking Biraben’s data set without citations to the original manuscripts. This problem is further illuminated by some of the plagues Biraben identified, such as the plague of 1437–1440, which occurred during a period of extreme cold weather ( 35 , 36 ) and manifested as harvest failures and famine-related diseases ( 37 ); research has suggested that waterborne infections were more likely the cause of this pestilence ( 38 ). …”

Bioarchaeology of Past Epidemic- and Famine-Related Mass Burials with Respect to Recent Findings from the Czech Republic

“…However, the results of different studies (e.g. DeWitte, 2010b; Galanaud et al, 2015;Crespo, Lawrenz, 2016) have shown that this is not the case, but rather, that susceptibility to death varies during sudden events such as epidemics, which have been referred to as heterogeneity in frailty (Wood et al, 1992). Recent research has indicated that one of the worst demographic crises, the Black Death, caused selective mortality and removed the frailest of the population (DeWitte, 2016).…”