Historical Legacies of Interethnic Competition

Abstract

How do historical legacies shape contemporary political outcomes? The article proposes a novel attitudinal mechanism through which distant interethnic competition can influence political preferences in the present. It theorizes that historically conditioned predispositions at the local level can moderate the effects of national-level framing of a policy issue. Using Poland as a test case, I show that subnational variation in support for EU accession was influenced by populist claims about the increase in Jewish influence in the postaccession period. Anti-Semitic cues resonated with voters in areas with historically large Jewish populations and a contentious interethnic past, where latent anti-Semitism persisted throughout the communist period. To provide evidence for this argument, the article draws on rich historical and contemporary data at the county, town, and individual level of analysis and utilizes novel research methods.

The Political Legacy of Forced Migration: Evidence from Post-WWII Germany

“…Moreover, consistent with evidence of competitive victimhood and more negative attitudes toward contemporary refugees among some expellee descendants (Dinas et al, 2021b), I find that areas with greater shares of expellees became more supportive of the AfD when it transformed into an anti-refugee party between 2013 and 2017. These findings corroborate a growing body of work that emphasizes the importance of political context for activating historical legacies (Charnysh, 2015; Fouka & Voth, nd; Rozenas & Zhukov, 2019).…”

“…Moreover, drawing on work that stresses the significance of political context for the materialization of historical legacies (Charnysh, 2015; Rozenas & Zhukov, 2019), I argue that a forced migrant identity is most likely to influence the electoral behavior of refugees in receiving areas when their identity-related grievances are unresolved and politically relevant. The mobilizing potential of this identity would in turn diminish when such grievances are addressed or lose their political salience.…”

Citizen Responses to Ethnic Representation

“…Citizens have long memories. Long-standing institutional discrimination, periods of ethnic conflict, and political and economic inequalities all play large roles in determining citizens’ views of outgroups (Baldwin and Huber, 2010; Canelas and Gisselquist, 2018; Cederman et al, 2011; Charnysh, 2015; Dinas et al, 2021; Homola et al, 2020; Miodownik and Nir, 2016; Ostby, 2008). Each of these factors is important, but country leaders have relatively a little power to alter institutional history without a great deal of time and a broad base of support.…”

Nuclear Proliferation Deterrence: Bullying vs Diplomacy

“…It was suggested that the change in India's nuclear ambition was influenced by a number of factors, but mainly because of the presumed threat from Pakistan and China. As of 1974, India managed to develop and successfully launched its first nuclear test (Charnysh, 2009: 2) and in 1983, it launched an Integrated Guided Missile Program (IGMP). Shortly after that and precisely in 1989, it successfully tested both short and medium range missiles.…”

“…Apart from the U.S., the UN joined the sanctions against Pakistan and in 1979 it suspended its military and economic aid to Islamabad (Charnysh, 2009: 2). The international community had believed that suspending aid to Pakistan will increase financial cost to the regime and thus force it to discontinue with its nuclear ambition.…”