Historical patterns of terrorism in Pakistan

Abstract

This article presents a descriptive analysis of terrorism in Pakistan over the past three decades. Using statistical tools, the authors disentangle terrorist violence to expose underlying trends. Continuities and discontinuities in the various types of terrorism are identified and correlated with domestic and international events. The gravity of terrorist violence is found to change from one region of the country to another in response to geopolitical events. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa share of terrorist incidents during the last three decades fell from 45% to 5% and then rebounded to 58%. Sindh's share of terrorist incidents followed an opposite pattern over the three decades, increasing from 23% to 68% and then decreasing again to just 9%. Terrorist incidents were most frequent in the 1990s but most lethal in the 2000s. Overall, terrorist violence has followed an increasing trend. The composition of terrorist attacks (sectarian, ethnic, and non-sectarian religious) has changed over the past three decades, with sectarian terrorism emerging as the more lethal, causing almost six casualties per attack. Terrorist methods have also changed over time, with bombings becoming less prominent in the 1990s but much more common in the 2000s. The geographical distribution of terrorist incidents has likewise changed over time -national and provincial capitals were targeted 64% of the time in the 1980s and just 25% of the time today. Overall, the authors conclude that the methods and pattern of terrorist incidents change logically in response to changes in the geopolitical environment.

Causes and Incentives for Terrorism in Pakistan

“…26 Terrorist attacks during this time were a response to the Soviet and Afghan secret intelligence agencies inside Pakistan for covert intervention (Wright, 2007). Saeed, Syed, and Martin (2014) show that, during this time, terrorist attacks were concentrated in the Afghan bordering regions of Pakistan. also observes that due to proximity to Afghanistan, radical seminaries sprung up in bordering regions to support the Afghan Jihad.…”

Reporting terrorism in Muslim Asia: the Peshawar massacre

“…A host of internal and external conditions contributed to the violence experienced by the country. International events coupled with opportunistic domestic politics have been instrumental in setting the terms for the violence that Pakistan is experiencing to date (Droogan, 2018;Saeed et al, 2014;Siddiqa, 2011;Weinbaum, 2017). Since its birth in 1947, these matters have overlapped and branched out, creating new conditions that feed the insatiable appetite of the terror genie (Droogan, 2018;Weinbaum, 2017).…”

“…As Misra (2003: 189) observes, the religion card has always played a key role in Pakistani politics and 'ironically, has been used more effectively by the political, leaders and generals' than the clergy. For instance, the period between 1977 and 1988 was marked by state-sponsored Islamization, where military dictator General Ziaul-Haq collaborated with conservative Islamic forces to suppress any dissent (Haqqani, 2010;Jalal, 2014;Nazar, 2016;Saeed et al, 2014).…”

Forced migration, human trafficking, and human security

“…The issue of displacement of people due to political and economic instability and disasters is particularly grave with reference to Pakistan. As Saeed et al (2014: 209), among others, have discussed, Pakistan’s political terrain has been in a state of upheaval since the 1980s:Events that took place in the international political arena at that time had lasting effects on Pakistan’s political fate. Principal among these events were: the coup in neighboring Afghanistan led by Muhammad Daud in 1973, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and the Iranian revolution of 1979.These events, coupled with opportunistic domestic politics in Pakistan, helped create a geopolitical environment that gave birth to violent upheavals in the political landscape of Pakistan.…”