History of Chemically and Radiatively Important Atmospheric Gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

Prinn, Ronald G.; Weiss, Ray F.; Arduini, Jgor; Arnold, Tim; DeWitt, H. Langley; Fraser, Paul J.; Ganesan, Anita L.; Gasore, Jimmy; Harth, Christina M.; Hermansen, Ove; Kim, Jooil; Krummel, Paul B.; Li, Shanlan; Loh, Zoë; Lunder, Chris Rene; Maione, Michela; Manning, Alistair J.; Miller, Ben; Mitrevski, Blagoj; Mühle, Jens; amp, O; apos,; Doherty, Simon; Park, Sunyoung; Reimann, Stefan; Rigby, M. L.; Saito, Takuya; Salameh, Peter K.; Schmidt, Roland; Simmonds, Peter; Steele, L. P.; Vollmer, Martin K.; Wang, Ray H.; Yao, Bo; Yokouchi, Yoko; Young, Dickon; Zhou, Lingxi

doi:10.5194/essd-2017-134

Cited by 40 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 3 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…High-frequency atmospheric CFC-11 mole fraction data from the AGAGE network 4 and Japanese National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 5 show signals that are consistent with a continuing decline in CFC-11 emissions from Europe, North America and Australia in recent years, but a rise from eastern Asia since 2012 ( Figure 1; Extended Data Figure 1). In these datasets, enhancements above the hemispheric background mole fractions are observed when plumes from nearby sources impinge on the measurement stations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Emissions were projected to decline as these banks depleted 1 . However, atmospheric mole fraction data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) show that the rate at which CFC-11 has been declining in the global background atmosphere slowed since approximately 2013, and its interhemispheric mole fraction difference increased 3,4 . Whilst variations in atmospheric circulation may have contributed to the slow-down, an increase in northern hemispheric emissions is required, starting after 2012, to explain the majority of these observed changes 3 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Rigby

Park

Saito

et al. 2019

Nature

188

182

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer relies on the continued decline in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases such as the chlorofluorocarbons 1. The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the second most abundant chlorofluorocarbon, has declined substantially since the mid-1990s 2. A recently reported slowdown in the decline of the atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 after 2012, however, implies that global emissions have increased 3,4. A concurrent increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia contributes to the global emission increase, but the location and magnitude of this regional source remain uncertain 3. Here we use high-frequency atmospheric observations from Gosan, Republic of Korea and Hateruma, Japan, together with global monitoring data and atmospheric chemical transport model simulations to investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern Asia. We find that emissions from eastern mainland China are 7.0 ± 3.0 Gg yr-1 higher in 2014-2017 compared to 2008-2012, and the emissions increase arises primarily around the northeastern provinces of Shandong and Hebei. This increase accounts for a substantial fraction (about 40-60%, or more) of the global CFC-11 emission rise. We find no evidence for a significant increase in emissions from any other eastern Asian countries or other regions of the world where available data allow for the detection of regional emissions. Attribution of any remaining fraction of the global CFC-11 emission rise to other regions is limited by the sparsity of long-term measurements of sufficient frequency near potentially emissive regions. Multiple considerations suggest that the increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern mainland China is likely the result of new Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS, UK, formerly the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)) contract 1028/06/2015 to the University of Bristol and the UK Meteorological Office. Ragged Point, Barbados is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA), contract RA-133-R15-CN-0008 to the University of Bristol. L.W., M.L.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 82%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Rigby

Park

Saito

et al. 2019

Nature

188

182

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…): Gosan (GSN; 33.28°N, 126.17°E; air intake height of 17 m above ground level (agl)), Hateruma (HAT; 24.06°N, 123.81°E; air intake height of 36.5 m agl) and Cape Ochiishi (COI; 43.16°N, 145.50°E; air intake height of 51 m agl). These three stations are a part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment network (AGAGE) 22. …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of Back-Trajectory Statistical Methods and Inverse Modeling Method in Locating Emission Sources

Fang

Saito

Park

et al. 2018

ACS Earth Space Chem.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Back-trajectory statistical methods, e.g., potential source contribution functions (PSCF) and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) methods, have been widely used in previous studies to locate emission source regions of air pollutants or greenhouse gases. Inverse modeling methods have been developed and used in an increasing number of applications. To this date, there are no comparisons of performance between back-trajectory statistical and inverse modeling methods. This study evaluates the performance of PSCF, CWT and inverse modeling methods by taking advantage of precisely-known locations of trifluoromethane (CHF3; HFC-23) sources. Results show poor performance of the PSCF and CWT methods and good performance of the inverse modeling method. This study suggests that in studies with the purpose of locating emission source regions, the PSCF and CWT methods should be applied with caution in future studies, and that the inverse modeling method is encouraged to be used much more widely.

show abstract

“…Evaluating global emissions using atmospheric observations. We provide an update on global HFC-23 emissions through to the end of 2018, based on in situ HFC-23 measurements from the five core Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) stations 17,18 , located in remote sampling locations at Mace Head (Ireland), Trinidad Head (California, USA), Ragged Point (Barbados), Cape Matatula (American Samoa) and Cape Grim (Tasmania, Australia), in conjunction with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and a Bayesian inversion methodology (see Methods section) 6 . Our estimates are consistent with the most recent prior study, which covered the period until 2015 6 , showing an overall increase in HFC-23 emissions over the previous three decades, but with a substantial decline during the CDM period and a small drop between 2014 and 2015.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Atmospheric measurements were taken from the five longest-running baseline stations in the AGAGE network ( Supplementary Fig. 2 17 . Together, these observatories provide long-term in situ measurements of a wide range of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF 3 ), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF 2 ). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 ± 0:9 Gg yr À1 ). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional 309 Tg CO 2 -equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.

show abstract

History of Chemically and Radiatively Important Atmospheric Gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

Cited by 40 publications

References 3 publications

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations

Performance of Back-Trajectory Statistical Methods and Inverse Modeling Method in Locating Emission Sources

Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About