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Santos, Sandra Costa; Bertolino, Nadia; Hicks, Stephen; Lewis, Camilla; May, Vanessa

doi:10.4324/9781351041706-9

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Ravenstein in 1885 to describe these influences are migration laws, the same term used by natural scientists to describe universal mechanisms of motion and inertia that transcend specific situations and govern a wide variety of similar phenomena. 9…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first studies of human migration date back to the 19th century, when cartographer E.G. Ravenstein formulated a set of migration laws, 9 which state (among other things) that migrants are more likely to move shorter distances and to urban areas. In 1966, Lee 2 expanded on Ravenstein’s laws and proposed a new analytic framework based on push and pull factors, incorporating socioeconomic influences in origin and destination areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamical simulation of the Syrian refugee crisis: quantifying the driving factors of forced migration

Diedrichs,

Hill,

et al. 2023

SIMULATION

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With over 21 million refugees at the end of 2021, forced migration across national borders has become a global reality and a major international policy issue. This paper proposes a dynamical model based on the Syrian Refugee Crisis to quantify the factors that influence a refugee’s decision to migrate and the destination choice. The model simulates refugee migrations in space and time, from the moment they flee their country of origin until they are granted asylum in a host country or lose refugee status by attrition or repatriation. Migration is driven by comparative attractiveness scores based on differences in quality of life, political stability, societal violence, cultural familiarity, and distance between countries, while accounting for risk aversion and psychological inertia. By comparing simulation results to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data, we determine weight parameters that quantify the relative importance of each attribute in inducing a migration flow. The model is a computationally efficient forecasting and ex-post analysis tool, providing insight into the dynamics of refugee flow and effect of immigration policies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%