Homebound by COVID19: The Benefits and Consequences of Non-pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies

Abstract

Background. Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of NPIs for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from community/workplace interactions).Methods. An agent-based simulation model to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020.Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 3.43, 19.8, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 121K-268K, 522K-567K, 5,377K-5,380K, respectively.Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.

Viral transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 accelerates in the winter, similarly to influenza epidemics

“…The implementation of extreme and widespread imposed lockdowns, individual social distancing measures and behavioral changes, other non-pharmaceutical interventions along with the development of varying degrees of herd immunity will all influence the magnitude of epidemics. [30][31][32] However, the extent to which these factors impact on the initial weeks of the epidemic trajectory and smother any seasonality in transmissibility is less certain. 33 Herein, we compare the weekly trend of infection and the case increase ratio of infection during the epidemics occurring in winter, spring, and summer, by using the COVID-19 and influenza patient data in Tokyo.…”

Evaluating Scenarios for School Reopening under COVID19

“…Recent studies have shown the potential benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures (4, 5), in slowing down infection spread and reducing the severe health outcomes, but also highlighted their negative impact on the economy, unemployment, mobility, mental health, education, caregiving, etc. (6, 7). Widespread school closures during spring 2020 not only impacted the education of children and youth but also had economic consequences due to increased childcare responsibilities of working parents (8–16).…”

Fast school closures correspond with a lower rate of COVID-19 incidence and deaths in most countries

“…Many papers scanned the role of school closures or other nonpharmaceutical policies on the COVID-19 incidence and mortality rate in specific periods and countries. These papers stated that these policies have been effective in reducing the virus transmission but after reopening or relaxation of inhibitory rules, the number of cases starts to increase and the policies have impermanent effects [ 10 , 11 , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] , [33] ]. On the other hand, some other papers emphasize the early application of school closures to reduce virus transmission [ 34 , 35 ].…”