Homicide Clearance Rates in the United States, 1976–2017

Avdija, Avdi S.; Gallagher, Christian W.; Woods, DeVere D.

doi:10.1891/vv-d-20-00134

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 27 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In this analysis, we seek to adjust the trend in arrest rates for intertemporal changes in the case mix. The literature on solvability in homicide cases identifies particular characteristics of a homicide case that are associated with or affect the ease of solution (Alderden & Lavery, 2007; Avdija et al, 2022; Jarvis et al, 2017; Prince et al, 2021; Wellford & Cronin, 2000; Wellford et al, 2019). These characteristics help answer the “who, where, and how” questions, and include weapon type, location, and demographic characteristics of the victim—all of which are almost always recorded regardless of the success of the investigation.…”

Section: Data and Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest

Cook,

Lopez

2023

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.

show abstract

Section: Data and Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest

Cook,

Lopez

2023

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Or is that historical pattern somehow an artifact associated with underlying trends in the accuracy and completeness of clearance data in the UCR? It is reassuring that criminologists who have analyzed these data have generally accepted the Great Decline as factual (Avdija et al 2022, Korosec 2012, Mancik & Parker 2019, Ousey & Lee 2010, Riedel 2008, Riedel & Jarvis 1999, Wellford et al 1999, 2019.…”

Section: Documenting the Sixty-year Trend The Great Decline Is Realmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sixty-Year Trajectory of Homicide Clearance Rates: Toward a Better Understanding of the Great Decline

Cook

Mancik

2024

Annu. Rev. Criminol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In 1962, the FBI reported a national homicide clearance rate of 93%. That rate dropped 29 points by 1994. This Great Decline has been studied and accepted as a real phenomenon but remains mysterious, as does the period of relative stability that followed. The decline was shared across regions and all city sizes but differed greatly among categories defined by victim race and weapon type. Gun homicides with Black victims accounted for most of the decline. We review the evidence on several possible explanations for the national decline, including those pertaining to case mix, investigation resources, and citizen cooperation. Our preferred explanation includes an upward trend in the standard for arrest, with strong evidence that although clearance-by-arrest rates declined, the likelihood of conviction and prison sentence actually increased. That result has obvious implications for the history of policing practice and for the validity of the usual clearance rate as a police performance measure. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 7 is January 2024. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

show abstract

“…Based on the available evidence, the hypothesis is that the higher the number of victims, the higher the likelihood of evidence leading to clearance. (Addington, 2007;Lee, 2005;Sturup et ( Alderden & Lavery, 2007;Avdija et al, 2022;Campedelli, 2022;Lee, 2005;Puckett & Lundman, 2003;Regoeczi et al, 2008;Riedel & Rinehart, 1996;Wolfgang, 1958) Victim's Age…”

Section: Countmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on extensive research, the variable has been included as previous works highlighted how age is a significant predictor of clearance, although mixed findings for some age classes exist. (Alderden & Lavery, 2007;Avdija et al, 2022;Lee, 2005;Puckett & Lundman, 2003;Regoeczi et al, 2000;Wolfgang, 1958) Decade…”

Section: Categoricalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The extant literature shows that considering the context in which a homicide occurred is helpful in predicting the outcome of the investigation because some homicides are much more straightforward to solve (e.g., homicides in domestic situations). (Alderden & Lavery, 2007;Avdija et al, 2022;Litwin, 2004;Litwin & Xu, 2007;Lundman & Myers, 2012;Maxfield, 1989;Wolfgang, 1958) (Continues)…”

Section: Categoricalmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Homicides involving Black victims are less likely to be cleared in the United States

Campedelli

2024

Criminology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Does a victim's race explain variation in the likelihood of homicide clearance? Attempts to address this issue date back to the 1970s. Yet, despite its theoretical and policy relevance, we lack a comprehensive and clear empirical answer to this critical question. Here, I causally focus on this problem by investigating racial disparity in homicide clearance in the United States, exploiting two sources covering the 1991–2020 period: the Murder Accountability Project data set (N = 522,278) and the National Incident‐Based Reporting System data set (N = 98,677). I primarily analyze these sources by employing exact matching to achieve perfect covariate balance and subsequently isolate the effect of race on the probability of clearance. For comparative purposes, I also use regression adjustment without matching obtaining complementary estimates. I demonstrate that the likelihood of clearance is 3.4 to 4.8 percent lower for homicides involving Black victims, depending on the sampling and estimation approach. In addition, I empirically show that this race effect is slightly higher for males and that racial disparity has moderately but significantly increased over time. These findings contribute to the extensive amount of evidence on discrimination affecting Black individuals in the administration of justice in the United States, calling for structural efforts to reduce this divide.

show abstract

Homicide Clearance Rates in the United States, 1976–2017

Cited by 4 publications

References 27 publications

Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest

Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest

The Sixty-Year Trajectory of Homicide Clearance Rates: Toward a Better Understanding of the Great Decline

Homicides involving Black victims are less likely to be cleared in the United States

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About