Homicide-Suicide in Italy Between 2009-2018: An Epidemiological Update and Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Homicide–suicide is an event in which an individual murders one or more persons and then takes his/her own life. The present study aimed to assess the incidence of homicide-suicide in Italy over a 10-year period (between 2009 and 2018) and to compare its findings with national and international data. Furthermore, a time series analysis was carried out employing an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Data regarding homicide-suicide cases were collected from press agencies and four major Italian newspapers. In the considered time frame, 368 cases of homicide–suicide were identified, with a total of 808 deaths. Findings aligned with international data, highlighting that the murderer is typically an older male who, for romantic jealousy, kills with a firearm his current or former female partner. The average rate of homicide–suicides was 0.06%, showing an increase compared to the previous decades. In addition, the forecasting model predicted a further increase in cases in the coming years, highlighting the need to systematically gather data on this phenomenon.