Homogenization, sex, and differential motility predict spread of chronic wasting disease in mule deer in southern Utah

Garlick, Martha; Powell, James A.; Hooten, Mevin B.; MacFarlane, Leslie R.

doi:10.1007/s00285-013-0709-z

Cited by 27 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…During the outbreak of a disease such as CWD, the transmission and spread may be driven by the movement of individuals; thus, ecological diffusion is a realistic model for a population‐level spatio‐temporal process representing the latent risk of CWD (Garlick et al . ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

et al. 2017

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Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

et al. 2017

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“…To date, only a few studies have used information on animal movements to predict disease occurrence (Bar‐David, Lloyd‐Smith & Getz ; Garlick et al . ). In none of these cases were predictions based on animal movements compared to simple Euclidian distance to determine whether landscape connectivity improved predictions of disease occurrence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Landscape connectivity predicts chronic wasting disease risk in Canada

Nobert

Merrill

Pybus

et al. 2016

Journal of Applied Ecology

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1. Predicting the spatial pattern of disease risk in wild animal populations is important for implementing effective control programmes. We developed a risk model predicting the probability that a deer harvested in a wild population was chronic wasting disease positive (CWD+) and evaluated the importance of landscape connectivity based on deer movements. 2. We quantified landscape connectivity from deer 'resistance' to move across the landscape similar to the flow of electrical current across a hypothetical electronic circuit. Resistance values to deer movement were derived as the inverse of step selection function values constructed using movement data from GPS-collared deer. 3. The top CWD risk model indicated risk increased over time was higher among mule deer Odocoileus hemionus than white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, males than females, and was greater in areas with high stream density and abundant agriculture. A metric of connectivity derived from mule deer movements outperformed models including Euclidean distance, with high connectivity being associated with high CWD risk. 4. The CWD risk model was a good predictor of CWD occurrence among an independent set of surveillance data collected in subsequent years. 5. Synthesis and applications. We found that landscape connectivity was a major contributor to the spatial pattern of chronic wasting disease (CWD) risk on a heterogeneous landscape. For this reason, future disease surveillance programmes and models of disease spread should consider landscape connectivity. In the aspen parkland ecosystem, we recommend managers focus surveillance and control efforts along river valleys surrounded by agriculture where mule deer abound, because of the high risk of CWD infection. Fig. 4. (a) Chronic wasting disease (CWD) risk weighted by species and sex composition within wildlife management unit 730 in Alberta, and (b) forest/shrub cover, streams and agriculture within 730, where streams and agriculture are covariates in the CWD risk model.

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“…We hypothesized that male deer would be more likely to shed prions in their saliva (Table 2). Population studies indicate that male deer have a higher CWD prevalence than female deer, a phenomenon attributed to behavioral differences between the sexes (40,41). Because the exposure to the pathogen was ensured by our experimental inoculation, we could differentiate the effect of sex on shedding from its effect on CWD exposure or infection.…”

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Assessment of Chronic Wasting Disease Prion Shedding in Deer Saliva with Occupancy Modeling

et al. 2018

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The detection of prions is difficult due to the peculiarity of the pathogen, which is a misfolded form of a normal protein. The specificity and sensitivity of detection methods are imperfect in complex samples, including in excreta. Here, we combined optimized prion amplification procedures with a statistical method that accounts for false-positive and false-negative errors to test deer saliva for chronic wasting disease (CWD) prions. This approach enabled us to discriminate the shedding of prions in saliva and the detection of prions in saliva-a distinction crucial to understanding the role of prion shedding in disease transmission and for diagnosis. We found that assay sensitivity and specificity were indeed imperfect, and we were able to draw several conclusions pertinent to CWD biology from our analyses: (i) the shedding of prions in saliva increases with time postinoculation, but is common throughout the preclinical phase of disease; (ii) the shedding propensity is influenced neither by sex nor by prion protein genotype at codon 96; and (iii) the source of prion-containing inoculum used to infect deer affects the likelihood of prion shedding in saliva; oral inoculation of deer with CWD-positive saliva resulted in 2.77 times the likelihood of prion shedding in saliva compared to that from inoculation with CWD-positive brain. These results are pertinent to horizontal CWD transmission in wild cervids. Moreover, the approach described is applicable to other diagnostic assays with imperfect detection.

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Homogenization, sex, and differential motility predict spread of chronic wasting disease in mule deer in southern Utah

Cited by 27 publications

References 42 publications

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

Landscape connectivity predicts chronic wasting disease risk in Canada

Assessment of Chronic Wasting Disease Prion Shedding in Deer Saliva with Occupancy Modeling

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