Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China

Abstract

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change‐induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Qinghai Spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) in Qilian Mountains

“…The difference may be attributed to different selected climate models. Previous studies demonstrated that different models and different realizations in the same model may show quite different historical temperature evolution [68] There are 19 general circulation models (GCMs) in WorldClim, in these studies, we selected the CCSM4 model because it was widely adopted to simulate future climate change projection [69,70]. However, the comparative analysis of climate model performance in Qilian Mountains is needed in further research, which could provide the criterion for selecting models.…”

The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

“…Besides human pressure, the distribution of species also depends largely on climatic conditions, suggesting that climate change will affect the future availability of suitable habitat and hence species distributions [ 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 ]. As a result of climate change, suitable habitats may become increasingly fragmented or disappear altogether, causing further changes in biodiversity [ 30 , 31 ]. Climate change may shrink and/or shift species’ ranges, thereby increasing their vulnerability to external disturbances [ 32 ].…”

Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China

“…One SDM, the MaxEnt algorithm, has proven powerful when modeling rare species with narrow ranges and scarce presence-only occurrence data [54,55]. This model is widely used in endangered species protection, protected area planning, invasive species control, and climate change impacts on the distribution of biological areas [7,16,26,27,29,56,57]. Therefore, we used MaxEnt (version 3.3.3k) in this study to model environmental suitability for giant pandas under RCP 4.5 in the year 2050.…”

“…However, most efforts are at medium or large scales. e.g., the studies have focused on the whole distribution range [24,25] or on mountain ranges, such as the Qinling Mountains [26][27][28], the Minshan Mountains [16,29] and the Daxiangling Mountains [30]. This is problematic because the results are difficult to translate into viable decisions.…”