Hotspots in Transition: Mediterranean Amphibian Diversity Under Different Climate Scenarios

Abstract

The Mediterranean Basin, a region renowned for its biodiversity, is experiencing unprecedented ecological changes owing to shifting climate patterns. This study employs ecological niche modeling to assess impacts of historical, current, and future climate scenarios on climatic suitability patterns for 36 endemic amphibian species. The study incorporates a diverse set of environmental variables to project species’ potential geographic distributions across significant climatic events, including the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, and Mid-Holocene, as well as future projections for 2050 and 2070 under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting models underscore the congruence of predicted species-rich areas with established biodiversity hotspots, and highlight the influence of precipitation on amphibian distribution. Notably, the study reveals potential shifts in biodiversity importance of different areas across the Mediterranean landscape, with certain regions projected to transition from hotspots to coldspots and vice versa, in response to future climatic changes. These insights contribute to a broader discourse on conservation priorities, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies that can accommodate the dynamic nature of biodiversity in response to climate change. The findings of this study serve as a call to action for preserving Mediterranean biodiversity, providing a data-driven foundation for informed conservation planning in this critical hotspot.