Hourly electricity price forecast for short-and long-term, using deep neural networks

Abstract

Despite the practical importance of accurate long-term electricity price forecast with high resolution - and the significant need for that - only small percentage of the tremendous papers on energy price forecast attempted to target this topic. Its reason can be the high volatility of electricity prices and the hidden – and often unpredictable – relations with its influencing factors. In our research, we performed different experiments to predicate hourly Hungarian electricity prices using deep neural networks, for short-term and long-term, too. During this work, investigations were made to compare the results of different network structures and to determine the effect of some environmental factors (meteorologic data and date/time - beside the historical electricity prices). Our results were promising, mostly for short-term forecasts - especially by using a deep neural network with one ConvLSTM encoder.