House Market in Chinese Cities: Dynamic Modeling, In-Sample Fitting and Out-of-Sample Forecasting

Leung, Charles Ka Yui; Chow, Kenneth K.; Yiu, Matthew S.; Tam, Dickson C.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1663460

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Leung and Wang (2007) apply the DiPasquale-Wheaton model to China and conduct policy analyses. Leung et al (2011) propose simple models for house price and construction dynamics, and estimate model implications with data from four major cities.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?

Huang

Leung

2015

gwp

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Using Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and considering geological, environmental, and social diversity, this study suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008.Besides, local amenities such as higher education, green infrastructure, healthcare, and climate also positively affect house prices. Moreover, the impacts of bank loans and amenities on housing prices are interacted rather than isolated.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?

Huang

Leung

2015

gwp

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…() and Leung et al . (). Second, in using a simultaneous equations approach, we treat income and construction cost as exogenous, noting that these variables might be treated as endogenous if we chose to use a more complicated model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In an effort to provide a simple model to explain the aggregate behaviour of the most important variables in the housing market, several simplifying Peng et al (2008) and Leung et al (2011). Second, in using a simultaneous equations approach, we treat income and construction cost as exogenous, noting that these variables might be treated as endogenous if we chose to use a more complicated model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply

Chow

Niu

2015

Pacific Economic Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper studies the demand for and supply of residential housing in urban China since the late 1980s when the urban housing market became commercialized. Using aggregated annual data from 1987 to 2012 in a simultaneous equations framework we show that the rapid increase in the urban residential housing price can be well explained by the forces of demand and supply, with income determining demand and cost of construction affecting supply. We find the income elasticity of demand for urban housing to be approximately 1, the price elasticity of demand to be approximately −1.1 and the price elasticity of supply of the total housing stock to be approximately 0.5. The resulting long‐run effect of income on urban housing prices in elasticity terms is approximately 0.7, because the increase in income has shifted the demand curve outward more rapidly than the supply curve.

show abstract

“…As property market dynamism increasingly becomes intertwined with speculative financial flows, urban space is thus shaped and reshaped under the stimulus of capital overaccumulation and the need to absorb surplus, a process that ironically can be a source of economic macro crises as much as the share of the property market in the gross domestic product (GDP) increases [3]. The global economic crisis of 2008 was indeed a reminder of this type of outcome, which may occur again as the expansion of urban assets keeps escalating in countries like China [5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real Estate Industry as an Urban Growth Machine: A Review of the Political Economy and Political Ecology of Urban Space Production in Mexico City

Ramos¹

2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cities concentrate the means of production, wealth, political power, infrastructure, educational institutions, and a relevant share of our cultural heritage. As such, they are seen as places of opportunities. Contemporary urbanization, however, being central to the accumulation of capital, has also escalated environmental problems that are usually suffered by the urban poor due to an uneven production of urban space. Mexico City is not an exception. It has mainly expanded through a lively auto-construction process and, more recently, under the incentive of a speculative urban development. The first trend reinforces the informal housing sector, in certain cases, involving significant environmental implications such as the degradation of land of ecological value. The second trend responds to capital accumulation dynamics, promoting urban renewal in central areas or where a greater potential rent-gap exists, underpinning the uneven production of urban space, and usually withholding most of its related socioenvironmental impacts. This paper focusses on this second process. It assesses the so-called "urban growth machine" in taction, its socioecological impacts, and related contestation processes. With that in mind and after a general introduction and a brief description of urban development in Mexico, the real estate industry in Mexico City is evaluated in terms of the potential ecological implications of the building stock expansion from 2012 to 2018. A spatial distribution analysis of contestation processes, correlated to such urban expansion, is presented as well. The case study confirms what has been learned in other locations of the Global South, where a contradictory and uneven process of urban development has also been experienced under the stimulus of capital speculation. The paper, however, offers a novel approach by bringing together urban political economy, industrial ecology and urban political ecology analytical tools. Such hybridization, it is argued, enables a more comprehensive understanding of contemporary urbanization and its socioenvironmental impacts, which in turn is central to any effort for urban transformation.

show abstract

House Market in Chinese Cities: Dynamic Modeling, In-Sample Fitting and Out-of-Sample Forecasting

Cited by 9 publications

References 56 publications

Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?

Do Bank Loans and Local Amenities Explain Chinese Urban House Prices?

Housing Prices in Urban China as Determined by Demand and Supply

Real Estate Industry as an Urban Growth Machine: A Review of the Political Economy and Political Ecology of Urban Space Production in Mexico City

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About