Household Debt and Recession in Brazil

Garber, Gabriel; Mian, Atif; Ponticelli, Jacopo; Sufi, Amir

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3263785

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Tamadonejad et al (2016) analysed the indicators of EWS for banking crises in East Asian countries and proved that the chances for a depreciation in exchange rate and short-term debt caused a higher chance for crises with political instability and ineffective regulatory framework. In their study of an emerging country, Garber et al (2019) proved that the tremendous increase in household debt preceded Brazil's economic recession. Nevertheless, in a more recent study of 23 emerging economies, Tunay et al (2020) found opposite evidence showing that crises in the banking sector were headed by the current account deficit and systemic risk as consequence from credit default which explained the twin crisis hypothesis.…”

Section: The Role Of Household Debt and House Price In Banking Crisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Warning Indicators for Systemic Banking Crises: Household Debt and Property Prices

Samad¹,

Daud²,

Dali³

2020

JEM

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The 2008 financial crisis was the result of escalating house prices and a hasty increase in household debt. In a sample of 41 advanced and emerging countries, this paper employs a logit estimation model to examine the role of household debt and house price as indicators of systemic banking for the period of 1980 until 2018. The results confirm that a high growth in household debt and house price increase enhances the probability for crises to erupt. While this is a consistent evidence for advanced economies, an observation of emerging economies suggests that only a change in household debt and not a change in house prices may cause banking crises to erupt. Policymakers can thus design predictive EWS models based on the surge in household debt and house prices prior to the crises which would lessen, if not alleviate, the effect of upcoming economic shocks by monitoring the macroeconomic changes.

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Section: The Role Of Household Debt and House Price In Banking Crisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Warning Indicators for Systemic Banking Crises: Household Debt and Property Prices

Samad¹,

Daud²,

Dali³

2020

JEM

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“…Como reflexo, aquisição de dívidas tem se tornado uma condição social geral na atual sociedade, alcançando níveis críticos em diversos países da América Latina (DEAN et al, 2013;RIUS;ROMÁN, 2015). Segundo o Garber et al (2018), as dívidas de pessoas físicas no Brasil cresceram, nos últimos anos, a um ritmo maior do que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do país e da renda das famílias. Do mesmo modo, de acordo com o Sistema de Proteção aos Clientes (SPC) (2019), cerca de 40% da população adulta do país encontra-se endividada.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

O "Mal-Estar" Da Dívida

et al. 2021

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O endividamento revela-se como um fenômeno multifacetado, cujas repercussões extrapolam a esfera econômica, sendo responsável por forjar as subjetividades individuais, os modos de expressão e as práticas cotidianas dos sujeitos. Destarte, o presente estudo teve como objetivo apreender a representação social do constructo do endividamento para consumidores pertencentes à baixa renda, buscando identificar os significados que a ela subjazem. Para a obtenção dos propósitos dessa pesquisa, foram realizadas 194 entrevistas estruturadas de curta duração, analisadas a partir da técnica de evocação livres de palavras e do método Alceste mediante o uso do software IRAMUTEQ. Como resultado, verificou-se que o endividamento se revela enquanto fenômeno multifacetado com uma multiplicidade de atributos que concorrem à representação do seu conceito, transcendendo a compreensão puramente racionalista da lógica econômico-financeiro. Sucintamente, os sujeitos estruturam sua representação do endividamento em dois polos organizadores principais, expressados através de um elemento estrutural – a qual possui origem no arranjo socioeconômico geral – e de seu inter-relacionamento ao contexto individual. Nesse sentido, o fenômeno do endividamento apresenta repercussões subjetivas aos sujeitos, refletidas na organização das práticas do cotidiano, gerando, assim, um conjunto de obrigações financeiras individualizantes que resultam, sobretudo, em consequências emocionais prejudiciais aos mais pobres.

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“…The recent recession followed by stagnation of the Brazilian economy was preceded by significant growth of household debt in the period between 2003 and 2014, largely due to inclusion of more low-income people in the credit market. A big increase of household debt, most likely driven by credit supply, was followed by a severe recession and then weak recovery (Garber et al, 2018). This economic stagnation and higher household debt has had an adverse effect on the education market, sharpening competition, notably in the university segment (Silveira, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quality of Teaching, Corporate Image and Satisfaction of Students Enrolled in the Night Session of a Brazilian Private University: A Study With Structural Equation Modeling

Vieira¹,

Raguenet²,

Oriol³

et al. 2019

Proceedings of the 50th International Academic Conference, Paris

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Since 2014, the Brazilian economy has undergone a process of recession followed by stagnation, with end still unknown. This poor economic performance has provoked an increase in the unemployment rate, causing lower demand in several markets, including education. In this recessive environment, competition in the learning industry has intensified, especially in the university segment. The corporate image and loyalty of students has become a priority to expand market share. This study investigates the effect of the quality of service of a Brazilian private university on student satisfaction, corporate image and loyalty. A total of 112 questionnaires were distributed to students from a renowned private university in the city of Rio de Janeiro and 98 were fully answered. Students were selected by convenience sampling. The data were analyzed through structural equation modeling, based on partial least squares. In line with the work that underpins this study, the quality of the learning service was considered an antecedent of student satisfaction, affecting the corporate image and loyalty. The results showed that general student satisfaction affects the corporate image and loyalty, but not all dimensions of service quality have this effect. Although the main findings show convergence with those obtained in the work that underlies this study, some relevant divergences deserve attention. The Brazilian students in our sample did not attribute high relevance to academic aspects, including excellence of the faculty, since the professor is considered the main barrier to reach the most critical goal for the night students of the Brazilian private university studied, namely a university diploma.

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Household Debt and Recession in Brazil

Abstract: NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Cited by 7 publications

References 54 publications

Early Warning Indicators for Systemic Banking Crises: Household Debt and Property Prices

Early Warning Indicators for Systemic Banking Crises: Household Debt and Property Prices

O "Mal-Estar" Da Dívida

Quality of Teaching, Corporate Image and Satisfaction of Students Enrolled in the Night Session of a Brazilian Private University: A Study With Structural Equation Modeling

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