Housing Abandonment and Demolition: Exploring the Use of Micro-Level and Multi-Year Models

Abstract

Policies focusing on enforcing property code violations and the improvement of vacant properties are argued to be more efficacious than demolition policies to fight urban blight. This study applies parcel level data to a multi-year hybrid modeling structure. A fine-grained analysis is conducted on the dynamic patterns of abandonment and demolition for a unique period of four years before and after the City of Buffalo's stepped-up demolition efforts. Results showed that proximity to vacant and abandoned properties, sustained over the years, had the greatest impact on the possibility of a property being abandoned. The second greatest positive impact on property abandonment was small lot front size. Results also showed that neighborhood vacancy density had the greatest negative impact on surrounding housing sales prices over the years. There was no significant impact of demolition on housing sales prices. These findings suggested that the City should aim to have more incentive programs that are tailored to control the number of vacant properties, rather than focusing primarily on demolition-oriented programs.

Can Shrinking Cities Demolish Vacancy? An Empirical Evaluation of a Demolition-First Approach to Vacancy Management in Buffalo, NY, USA

“…While other scholars have critiqued this program on the grounds that it was not connected to larger planning frameworks [11,27], it was reactive [33], and that it did not complete its targeted ("aggressive") number of demolitions [15], we sought to add some empirical weight to this conversation. In particular, we put the foundational assumption-that demolition lowers vacancy-to the test.…”

“…As such, the size of stock shown in Figure 2 affects the rate at which properties are occupied or otherwise reused over time (o). Third, considering evidence that policies aimed at reducing blight are largely reactive [33,37], it is likely the case that larger stocks of vacant and abandoned properties are met with more aggressive levels of publicly funded demolitions (d). Indeed, such a reaction was arguably one of the driving forces behind Buffalo's "5 in 5" demolition program.…”

“…More specifically, while the city's adopted comprehensive plan included a Vacant Property Asset Management Strategy, the "5 in 5" program conspicuously was not linked to it, calling into question its potential to be successful [27]. Additionally, Yin and Silverman [33] and Silverman et al [15] have discussed the reactionary nature of the program, arguing that its detachment from proactive and comprehensive planning efforts undermined its efficacy.…”

St. Louis’s “urban prairie”: Vacant land and the potential for revitalization

“…Vacancy itself has been widely documented in the literature, but here we make several important contributions. First, unlike most studies (see Yin and Silverman, 2015 for a notable departure), we do not rely on U.S. Census measures of vacancy. Instead, we construct a novel data set that combines eight key indicators to develop parcel-level estimates of vacancy.…”

“…Nonetheless, demolition is an integral component of right-sizing and therefore has received attention in the shrinking cities genre. Demolitions have in large part been reactive to blight rather than used to proactively clear land for some planned future use (Mallach, 2011;Yin and Silverman, 2015).…”