Housing and fertility: a macro-level, multi-country investigation, 1993-2017

Brauner-Otto, Sarah R.

doi:10.1080/02673037.2021.1893279

Cited by 8 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 65 publications

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“…A shrinking and aging population has systemic implications, from housing stock, transportation, and energy consumption to other resource needs such as food and water (Brauner-Otto 2023;Hummel and Lux 2007). While the housing stock adapted to later life is of concern to planners (Golant 2002), the idea of housing over-development is rarely addressed, and if it is, it is interpreted as an investment bubble rather than dissonance between demographic growth and housing development (Williams and Redmond 2014).…”

Section: Systemic Implications and Regional Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

Guillemot,

Zhang,

Warner

2024

Social Sciences

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The United Nations’ 2022 World Population Prospects suggests the global population will reach 10 billion people in 2058 and will peak in 2086. Aggregated data do not account for regional and age-group realities, which draw a more pressing picture. We analyze the World Population Prospects 2022 data according to age groups and regions and show that population peaks are going to occur sooner in some regions of the world than others, and the working-age population will peak on average 10 to 20 years before the overall population peaks. Africa is the only world region expected to continue to experience significant population growth. The population will be increasingly made up of larger proportions of older ages than younger, thereby shifting the dependency ratio. Reflections on the implications of an aging and shrinking population on policy regarding fertility, aging, migration, urban planning and economic development are needed. The challenge is not to be left for future generations to face; it is happening tomorrow.

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Section: Systemic Implications and Regional Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

Guillemot,

Zhang,

Warner

2024

Social Sciences

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House prices and fertility: Can the Dutch housing crisis explain the post‐2010 fertility decline?

van Wijk

2024

Population Space and Place

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Fertility has declined in many rich societies after 2010. However, the factors that explain this fertility decline remain poorly understood. In particular, little is known about how changes on the housing market contributed to the fertility decline. This study examines the links between house prices and fertility in the Netherlands, a country where house prices have risen dramatically in the past decade. Regional (NUTS 3) data for the period 1995–2022 are analysed using within‐between models. The results for the within‐effect of house prices show that after 2010, fertility decreased (more) in regions where house prices increased (more), suggesting that the housing crisis in the Netherlands can explain a substantial part of the post‐2010 fertility decline. Before 2010, however, increases in regional house prices were associated with small increases in fertility, showing that the direction of the within‐effect of house prices depends on the time period that is studied. Finally, differences in house prices between regions are not consistently associated with fertility.

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Childhood internal migration in Europe: Developments across cohorts and countries

Pertzikovitz,

Wachter,

de Valk

2024

Population Space and Place

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Internal migration is the driving force behind population re‐distribution within countries. Although internal migration has been extensively studied among adults, little is known about patterns in childhood migration, and even less so in a comparative manner. This study, therefore, adopts a child‐centred approach and contributes to the literature by exploring cross‐national changes in childhood migration across birth cohorts. Moreover, it examines how patterns of childhood migration relate to the postponement of childbearing. Drawing on retrospective residential histories from the SHARE survey, we analyzed childhood migration trajectories of 178,476 individuals born between 1935 and 1994 in 28 European countries. Cohort analyses confirm a country gradient in childhood migration, with the highest migration rates in Northern Europe and the lowest in Southeastern Europe. Nonetheless, across nearly all countries, childhood migration has consistently declined since the 1970s. Furthermore, when children relocate, it happens at increasingly younger ages. Finally, we find that these patterns are related to the increasing childbearing age across Europe. Our results thereby highlight the interplay between childhood migration and adult family life's changing dynamics, offering a novel perspective on the link between these two demographic components.

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Housing and fertility: a macro-level, multi-country investigation, 1993-2017

Cited by 8 publications

References 65 publications

Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

House prices and fertility: Can the Dutch housing crisis explain the post‐2010 fertility decline?

Childhood internal migration in Europe: Developments across cohorts and countries

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