How and when armed conflicts end: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination dataset

Kreutz, Joakim

doi:10.1177/0022343309353108

Cited by 439 publications

(387 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Second, we consider conflict duration or the number of years since conflict onset (Kreutz, 2010), since long conflicts typically involve small and weak insurgencies that are less likely to compel the state to accept mediation (see Bercovitch and DeRouen, 2004;Svensson, 2007). Third, we consider the nature of the incompatibility, flagging all conflicts fought over territorial incompatibilities where groups seek autonomy or secession as opposed to control over the government (see Kreutz, 2010). In particular, insurgents in territorial conflicts can often challenge the state in a specific area, even if clearly weaker than that the state outside the main the conflict zone.…”

Section: Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We thus expect territorial conflicts to be more likely to see mediation and settlement (Clayton, 2013). We also consider whether there are parallel conflicts within the state (Kreutz, 2010), since multiple insurgencies can increase the costs associated of mediation to the state. More specifically, if rewarding one insurgency can motivate other challengers to intensify their efforts, this increases the costs associated with mediation, which reduces the likelihood of dialogue and settlement (Cunningham, 2006;Walter, 2003).…”

Section: Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success

Clayton

Gleditsch

2013

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Abstract:We examine whether features highlighted as important for mediation in existing research allow us to predict when we will see mediation and likely success out-of-sample.We assess to what extent information about the characteristics of the conflicting dyads and conflict history can be evaluated ex ante and improve our ability to predict when conflicts will see mediation as well as when peaceful solutions are more likely to follow from mediation. We justify that the information used to generate predictions through the model can be assessed ex ante, using the ongoing conflict in Syria as an example. Our results suggest that a two stage model of mediation and success seems to do relatively well overall in predicting when mediation is likely to occur, but notably less well in predicting the outcome of mediation. This may reflect how ex ante observable structural characteristics are likely to influence willingness to mediate, while the outcome of mediation to a large extent will be influenced by unobservable characteristics or private information and how these are influenced by mediation. We discuss the usefulness of out-of-sample evaluation in studying conflict management and suggest future directions for improving our ability to forecast mediation.

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Section: Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success

Clayton

Gleditsch

2013

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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“…Since then the number of negotiated war terminations has increased significantly (Kreutz 2010). This has important implications for postwar societies.…”

Section: Patterns Of War Terminationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society

Kurtenbach

2012

SSRN Journal

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Postwar societies are high-risk contexts for youth violence. Nevertheless, not all postwar societies are equally violent. This article explores how these variations can be explained by focusing on the interaction between youths and adult society in a comparison of Guatemala and Cambodia. Starting from the concept of socialization and the possibilities of performing status passages to adulthood, it analyzes not only the different risk factors but also the agency of young people and society in trying to cope with and overcome obstacles on the pathway to adulthood. Different patterns of war termination and of reconstruction after war's end are identified as major intervening variables that explain the variations in youth violence in as well as across the case studies.

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“…Peace agreements have become one of the most common instruments for battlefield opponents to end internal armed conflicts (Kreutz 2010). Such agreements dramatically reshape a post-war country's political landscape.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Peace Trickle Down? Micro-Level Evidence from Africa

Haaß¹,

Ottmann²

2017

Preprint

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Do peace agreements generate socio-economic peace dividends for citizens in post-war countries? While much research has focused on the elite level implications of peace agreements for the survival of peace, little is known about the micro-level, redistributive effects of peace agreements. We investigate the impact of peace agreement provisions and their implementation-specifically power-sharing arrangements-on individually reported measures of well-being. Building on a political economy theory of post-war politics, we conceptualize rebel organizations as political organizations that engage in distributive politics after conflict. As a result of such politically motivated redistribution, we expect an uneven manifestation of peace dividends on the micro-level that accumulates over the long-term.Specifically, we hypothesize that individuals with ethnic ties to rebel organizations that secure political power through a peace agreement perceive their well-being better than individuals without these links. To test this argument, we link data from recent Afrobarometer surveys to information on individuals' ethnic ties to rebel organizations in power-sharing arrangements in four African post-war countries.Controlling for a battery of factors that might simultaneously predict an ethnic group's propensity to gain political power and their members' well-being, results from a wide range of fixed effects specifications indicate support for our hypothesis.

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How and when armed conflicts end: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination dataset

Abstract: Several people have contributed to identifying mistakes in earlier versions of the dataset. I am particularly grateful for comments and suggestions from (in alphabetical order):

Cited by 439 publications

References 23 publications

Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success

Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success

Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society

Does Peace Trickle Down? Micro-Level Evidence from Africa

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