How can Changes in the Human‐Flood Distance Mitigate Flood Fatalities and Displacements?

Abstract

Comprehending the correlation between alterations in human‐flood distance and flood fatalities (as well as displacements) is pivotal for formulating effective human adaptive strategies in response to floods. However, this relationship remains inadequately explored in existing global analyses. To address this gap, we examine 910 flood events occurring from 2000 to 2018, resulting in significant numbers of fatalities and displacements. We find that in 53% of countries, humans tend to distance from floods, particularly in the Middle East. Such distancing greatly mitigates flood fatalities and displacements. Simultaneously, in areas with increased flood protection level (FPL), humans are less likely to move away from floods. Furthermore, FPL and human‐flood distance have decreased in regions affected by ice jam‐ and hurricane‐induced floods from 2000 to 2018. Notably, regions with human‐flood distance slightly below the average for a given flood type experience more severe flood fatalities.

The heterogeneity of human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia based on human-flood distance

“…To evaluate the dynamics of HFD over time, we incorporate simulated flood area (Fldare) into the approach proposed in our previous study (Wang et al 2023). This integration provides a more dynamic and accurate depiction of flood inundation dynamics over a specified timeframe.…”

“…Flooding, among the most pervasive natural hazards, continues to pose substantial risks to human life and property worldwide (Rentschler et al 2022, Wang et al 2023. Although characterized by its archetypal arid nature, Central Asia, comprising Kazakhstan (KAZ), Kyrgyzstan (KGZ), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), Uzbekistan (UZB) and China's Xinjiang (XJI), has been confronted with a recurring pattern of seasonal floods (Zou et al 2020, Wang et al 2022, resulting in substantial socioeconomic losses.…”

“…Exploring regional human flood adaptation characteristics has been a longstanding subject of scientific inquiry, given its importance in facilitating the implementation of efficient disaster management and risk reduction strategies (Petrucci 2022, Lindersson et al 2023. Among the myriad of actions influenced by floods, a particular focus is warranted on the human-flood distance (HFD), which encapsulates the spatial separation between human settlements and flood-prone areas (Jongman et al 2015, Mård et al 2018, Wang et al 2023. This distance is subject to intricate dynamics influenced by factors such as population expansion and the ever-changing patterns of flood inundation.…”

“…The HFD is an essential factor in determining the vulnerability of populations to flood events (Sanyal andLu 2005, Cabrera andLee 2020). Numerous studies have demonstrated that populations residing close to rivers, lakes, or coastal regions are at greater risk of flood-related fatalities than are those located farther from these areas (Hossain and Meng 2020, Senapati 2022, Wang et al 2023. However, a thorough exploration of the heterogeneity inherent in HFD across Central Asia is lacking.…”

“…Investigation of this spatiotemporal characteristic is currently experiencing accelerated progress due to the advent of remote-sensing big data. This innovative approach circumvents the limitations inherent in traditional census data, thereby facilitating a more robust and nuanced understanding of the dynamics involved (Ceola et al 2015, Collenteur et al 2015, Mård et al 2018, Wang et al 2023. Previous studies have primarily taken a global-scale approach, utilizing remote sensing data to assess the proximity of human settlements to river networks or floodinundated areas.…”