How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of global CO 2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1) Help develop low-carbon energy technology broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2) Entice other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive fossil fuels; (3) Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon emissions. Taking into account China's expected influence and approach to limiting the impact of anthropogenic climate change allows for a narrower range of possible outcomes than for a set of scenarios that are not constrained by analysis of likely policy-driven limitations. While China could hold back on implementing geoengineering given a remarkable amount of international cooperation on limiting fossil carbon burning, an outcome where geoengineering is used to delay the perceived need to limit the atmospheric CO 2 concentration may be difficult to avoid.

Climate Action Gaming Experiment: Methods and Example Results

“…Here E c is the global sum of a reference set of regional atmospheric carbon emissions that have each been multiplied by linearly interpolated values of factors (1 − f c ) determined from participants' inputs as discussed above. Over a wide range of conditions, the solutions of this equation reproduce well within modeling uncertainties the results from the more complex four-chamber global carbon balance used by Singer et al [5,17,33]. Each region has a maximum rate of carbon biosequestration that is based on its forestry potential.…”

“…The extrapolated populations for countries or groups of countries in each region were added to form a reference case estimate for the evolution of global population. For details on methods used for extrapolation of population, GDP, energy use rates, and ratios of carbon emissions rates to energy use rates (i.e., carbon intensity), see Singer et al [17]. In that work, the increase of population in each region over a year 1820 base level was fit with a logistic function.…”

“…The thermal emissivity decreases with the net effect of increasing global average temperature on atmospheric water and with increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. In light of ocean thermal inertia, solar insolation variations on 11 and 22-year cycles are neglected, but the effects of an 88 year Gleisburg cycle, and an assumed 600 year cycle with a minimum c. 1700, are included [17,[33][34][35].…”

“…The rate of change in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere depends on anthropogenic emissions, the amount of carbon dioxide already present, and the global average temperature [17,33]. These dependences occur in large part because the surface ocean layer can absorb a fraction of global carbon emissions, but this fraction decreases over time if the oceans become more acidic, warmer, or both.…”

Will China be the first to initiate climate engineering?

“…In this article, we develop some arguments using our understanding of Chinese historical development to provide a novel perspective on future potential deployment of climate engineering by China. The arguments are, of course, somewhat conjectural but we notice a lack of developing world views in the published geoengineering literature and wish to provide some balance to the community that has otherwise been subjected to articles saying the exact opposite [e.g., Dyer , ; Victor , ; Hamilton , ; Singer et al ., ].…”