How considering multiple criteria, uncertainty scenarios and biological interactions may influence the optimal silvicultural strategy for a mixed forest

Knoke, Thomas; Kindu, Mengistie; Jarisch, Isabelle; Gosling, Elizabeth; Friedrich, Stefan; Bödeker, Kai; Paul, Carola

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102239

Cited by 34 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 84 publications

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“…higher productivity of mixed stands compared to monocultures) in terms of physical output does not reveal the economically preferable species combination. Knoke et al (2020) show that multi-criteria optimization integrating uncertainty and biological interactions supports the application of both mixed-species management and continuous cover forestry.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Optimal Carbon Storage in Mixed-Species Size-Structured Forests

Assmuth

Rämö

Tahvonen

2021

Environ Resource Econ

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We extend the study of economically optimal carbon storage to a previously unexplored forest type, mixed-species size-structured stands. The ecological model applied in the study is a transition matrix model with growth functions for boreal Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), birch (Betula pendula Roth and B. pubescens Ehrh.), and other broadleaves. The other broadleaved trees are assumed to have no commercial value. We maximize the sum of timber revenues and the value of carbon storage by optimizing the timing and intensity of thinnings and the potentially infinite rotation age. The optimization problem is solved in its general dynamic form using gradient-based interior point methods and a genetic algorithm. We present results for a mixed stand of Norway spruce and birch, and a mixed stand of Norway spruce, birch, and other broadleaves, and compare these to a pure Norway spruce stand. We show that carbon pricing increases stand volume by postponing harvests and limiting them to larger trees, and changes the optimal species composition by increasing the share of Norway spruce relative to birch. Further, carbon pricing incentivizes maintaining other broadleaves in the stand despite their lack of commercial value, thus increasing tree species diversity. We find that sawlog and total yields increase with carbon price. We show that the higher the number of tree species in a stand, the lower the marginal cost of carbon storage.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Optimal Carbon Storage in Mixed-Species Size-Structured Forests

Assmuth

Rämö

Tahvonen

2021

Environ Resource Econ

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“…Our model considered uncertainty boxes. Alternative uncertainty space shapes include conic spaces [64,103].…”

Section: Opportunities For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Much Agroforestry Is Needed to Achieve Multifunctional Landscapes at the Forest Frontier?—Coupling Expert Opinion with Robust Goal Programming

et al. 2020

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Agroforestry has been promoted as a key forest landscape restoration (FLR) option to restore ecosystem services in degraded tropical landscapes. We investigated the share and type of agroforestry selected in an optimized landscape, accounting for a mosaic of alternative forest landscape restoration options (reforestation and natural succession) and forest and common agricultural land-uses. We extend previous studies on multi-objective robust optimization and the analytic hierarchy process by a systematic sensitivity analysis to assess the influence of incorporating agroforestry into a landscape. This approach accounts for multiple objectives concurrently, yet data and computational requirements are relatively low. Our results show that experts from different backgrounds perceive agroforestry (i.e., alley cropping and silvopasture) very positively. Inclusion of large shares of agroforestry (41% share of landscape) in the FLR mix enhanced simulated ecosystem service provision. Our results demonstrate that landscapes with high shares of agroforestry may also comprise of high shares of natural forest. However, landscapes dominated by single agroforestry systems showed lower landscape multifunctionality than heterogeneous landscapes. In the ongoing effort to create sustainable landscapes, our approach contributes to an understanding of interrelations between land-covers and uncertain provisions of ecosystem services in circumstances with scarce data.

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“…A third group of studies analyzes the financial performance of various mixed-species and stochastic setups applying portfolio theory, combinatorial models, and extensive simulation (Knoke et al 2020, Paul et al 2019, Messerer et al 2020 and among other results obtain support for diversifying both forest structures and tree species.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reinforcement learning in optimizing forest management

et al. 2021

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We solve a stochastic high-dimensional optimal harvesting problem by reinforcement learning algorithms developed for agents who learn an optimal policy in a sequential decision process through repeated experience. This approach produces optimal solutions without discretization of state and control variables. Our stand-level model includes mixed species, tree size structure, optimal harvest timing, choice between rotation and continuous cover forestry, stochasticity in stand growth, and stochasticity in the occurrence of natural disasters. The optimal solution or policy maps the system state to the set of actions, i.e. clear-cut/thinning/no harvest decisions and the intensity of thinning over tree species and size classes. The algorithm repeats the solutions for deterministic problems computed earlier with time-consuming methods. Optimal policy describes harvesting choices from any initial state and reveals how the initial thinning vs. clear-cut choice depends on the economic and ecological factors. Stochasticity in stand growth increases the diversity of species composition. Despite the high variability in natural regeneration, the optimal policy closely satisfies the certainty equivalence principle. The effect of natural disasters is similar to an increase in the interest rate, but in contrast to earlier results, this tends to change the management regime from rotation forestry to continuous cover management.

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How considering multiple criteria, uncertainty scenarios and biological interactions may influence the optimal silvicultural strategy for a mixed forest

Cited by 34 publications

References 84 publications

Optimal Carbon Storage in Mixed-Species Size-Structured Forests

Optimal Carbon Storage in Mixed-Species Size-Structured Forests

How Much Agroforestry Is Needed to Achieve Multifunctional Landscapes at the Forest Frontier?—Coupling Expert Opinion with Robust Goal Programming

Reinforcement learning in optimizing forest management

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