How decision makers can use quantitative approaches to guide outbreak responses

Abstract

Decision makers are responsible for directing staffing, logistics, selecting public health interventions, communicating to professionals and the public, planning future response needs, and establishing strategic and tactical priorities along with their funding requirements. Decision makers need to rapidly synthesize data from different experts across multiple disciplines, bridge data gaps and translate epidemiological analysis into an operational set of decisions for disease control. Analytic approaches can be defined for specific response phases: investigation, scale-up and control. These approaches include: improved applications of quantitative methods to generate insightful epidemiological descriptions of outbreaks; robust investigations of causal agents and risk factors; tools to assess response needs; identifying and monitoring optimal interventions or combinations of interventions; and forecasting for response planning. Data science and quantitative approaches can improve decision-making in outbreak response. To realize these benefits, we need to develop a structured approach that will improve the quality and timeliness of data collected during outbreaks, establish analytic teams within the response structure and define a research agenda for data analytics in outbreak response. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

First respiratory transmitted food borne outbreak?

“…To target the actions, similar basic epidemiological actions to human cases need to be taken with animal or food exposures. The data needs to be carefully described in terms of time-place-person (animal/food) (Jalava et al, 2018;Morgan, 2019). To resolve the outbreak, environmental epidemiologists interview the human case patients carefully and possibly other seafood market visitors about their activities in the market and exceptional events they may have observed or taken part in.…”

The Rapid Assessment and Early Warning Models for COVID-19

“…& Jing Li lj418@163.com the early epidemic stage so that relevant departments can take timely response measures to prevent the development into a malignant state and reduce the degree of harm as far as possible. As recognized by the WHO, mathematical models, especially those that are timely, play a key role in informing evidence-based decisions by policy-makers (Morgan 2019).…”

Estimating the epidemiology of emerging Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks in olives

“…have spread to vast parts of the globe, causing death to millions of plants in the process. However, at the start of an outbreak, decision-making processes are less likely to be underpinned by epidemiological information and there is considerable uncertainty around the impact and relative advantage of different disease control measures (Morgan, 2019). Therefore, there is a clear need to develop rapid epidemiological understanding for decision makers.…”