How Did We Do That? Histories and Political Economies of Rapid and Just Transitions

Abstract

It is becoming increasingly clear that deep and rapid transitions in technologies, infrastructures and ways of organising the economy are imperative if we are to live safely within planetary boundaries. But what historical precedents are there for such profound shifts within short spaces of time, and what were the enabling conditions? When have transitions in sectors such as energy, food, finance and transport come about before, and how would they be brought about again? Do these episodes shed any analogous light on our current collective predicament? This paper develops an account of the politics and prospects of deeper transitions towards sustainability based on a critical empirical, but theoretically informed, reading of previous socio-technical transitions. The scale and urgency of our current ecological predicament is daunting and can be disempowering in the absence of strategic thinking about when analogous challenges have been encountered before and how societies have sought to overcome them. Providing a combination of concrete empirical examples drawn both from academic literature and a series of public workshops reflecting on these themes, this paper seeks to provide a basis for understanding as well as engaging with the scope for accelerated transitions within and beyond capitalism.

The failure of Integrated Assessment Models as a response to ‘climate emergency’ and ecological breakdown: the Emperor has no clothes

“…But partisanship only goes so far and in a recent Pew Research Center survey, over 74% of American adults agreed that 'the country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment', compared with 23% who said 'the country has gone too far in its efforts to protect the environment'. 12 Forest fires, droughts, floods and hurricanes, it seems, are becoming more persuasive than complacent political rhetoric, but more needs to be done to develop and propagate real solutions and 'just transitions' (Newell & Simms, 2020). Notes 1.…”

Economics and climate emergency

“…We need a new paradigm of development, drawing on just transitions, degrowth, postgrowth, social ecological economics, ecofeminism and many other resources (e.g. Büchs & Koch, 2017;Hickel, 2020b;Kallis et al, 2020;Liegey & Nelson, 2020;Newell & Simms, 2020;Spash, 2020bSpash, , 2017. Given the scale and intensity of the crises we are facing, it seems clear a profound transformation in how the field of economics is conceptualized, taught, and practiced will be absolutely essential if humanity is to successfully combat the global climate emergency and arrest on-going ecological destruction across the planet (Røpke, 2020).…”

The geopolitics of energy system transformation: A review

“…Moreover, such an apolitical approach does not fully account for the spatial or geographical dynamics of transitions (Bridge et al, 2013;Bridge & Gailing, 2020;Huber & McCarthy, 2017;Newell, 2020;Newell & Simms, 2020a;Roberts et al, 2018;Sovacool, 2017). The literature on socio-technical transitions (STT), for example, also recognises these shortcomings.…”

“…The other side argues that ‘rapid transitions’ can occur at varying scales, involving fuels, services and end‐use devices. In that case, transitions are consciously governed; thanks to globalisation, changes unfolding in some parts of the world have important knock‐on effects in other parts of the world; and there is a broad‐based political consensus, driven by environmental imperatives, on the need for change (Kern & Rogge, 2016; Newell & Simms, 2020a; Sovacool, 2016; Sovacool & Geels, 2016). Technological advances also allow for developing economies to ‘leap‐frog’, avoiding carbon‐intensive economic development (Szabó et al., 2013).…”

“…A narrow focus on energy sources alone, however, ‘mask[s] the social and political dimensions of energy systems behind a false veneer of limited technological choices’ (Hirsch & Jones, 2014, p. 110; Laird, 2013). Moreover, such an apolitical approach does not fully account for the spatial or geographical dynamics of transitions (Bridge et al., 2013; Bridge & Gailing, 2020; Huber & McCarthy, 2017; Newell, 2020; Newell & Simms, 2020a; Roberts et al., 2018; Sovacool, 2017). The literature on socio‐technical transitions (STT), for example, also recognises these shortcomings.…”