Background: the European General Practitioners Research Network (EGPRN) designed and validated a comprehensive definition of multimorbidity using a systematic literature review and qualitative research throughout Europe. Detecting risk factors for decompensation would be an interesting challenge for family physicians (FPs) in the management of multimorbid patients. The purpose of the survey was to assess which items belonging to the EGPRN multimorbidity definition could help to identify patients at risk of decompensation in a cohort pilot study over a 24-month follow-up among primary care outpatients.
Method : 131 patients meeting the multimorbidity definition were included using two inclusion periods between 2014 and 2015. Over a 24-month follow-up, the « decompensation » or « nothing to report » status was collected. A logistic regression, following a Cox model, was then performed
to identify risk factors for decompensation.
Results : After 24 months of follow-up, 120 patients were analyzed. 3 clusters were identified. 44 patients, representing 36.6 % of the population, were still alive and had not been hospitalized for a period exceeding 6 days. Two variables were significantly linked to decompensation: the number of visits to the FP per year (HR 1.06, IC 95 %, 1,03-1,10, p-value <0,001) and the total number of diseases (HR 1,12, IC 95 %, 1,013-1,33, p-value = 0,039).
Conclusion: FPs should be aware that a high number of consultations and a high total number of diseases are linked to severe outcomes such as death or unplanned hospitalization. A large-scale cohort in primary care seems feasible to confirm these results.