How do potential evapotranspiration formulas influence hydrological projections?

Seiller, G.; Anctil, François

doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1100302

Cited by 77 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 84 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…Michel et al, 2016;Ershadi et al, 2014). Its performance depends on the reliability of the wide range input data required, and 25 on the methods used to derive raH and gc (Seiller and Anctil, 2016;Singh and Xu, 1997;Dolman et al, 2014). In our case, the strict procedure followed to select the samples of 107 eddy-covariance datasets (see Sect.…”

Section: Performance Of the Penman-monteith Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this overview, we will only discuss the most frequently used or new methods that will be evaluated in our study -the readers are referred to Oudin et al (2005a) or Seiller and Anctil (2016) for more extensive overviews. 25…”

Section: Selection Of Ep Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, there has been an increasing awareness of the impact of the underlying assumptions and caveats of the Ep methods (e.g. Sheffield et al, 2012;Kingston et al, 2009;Seiller and Anctil, 2016;Bai et al, 2016;Guo et al, 2017;Weiß and Menzel, 2008;Milly and Dunne, 2016). Therefore, a global appraisal of the most appropriate 35 method for assessing Ep of actual ecosystems is badly needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When comparing and evaluating different Ep methods, studies using a modelling approach have either (i) compaired the performance of different Ep methods in hydrological models (Oudin et al, 2005a;Seiller and Anctil, 2016;Xu and Singh, 2002;Kay and Davies, 2008) or (ii) in climate models (Milly and Dunne, 2016;Weiß and 40 Hydrol. Earth Syst.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Maes¹,

Gentine²,

Verhoest³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Potential evaporation (Ep) is a crucial variable for hydrological forecast and in drought monitoring systems. However, multiple interpretations of Ep exist, and these reflect a diverse range of methods to calculateEp. As such, a comparison of the performance of these methods against field observations in different global ecosystems is badly needed. In this study, we used eddy-covariance measurements from 107 sites of the FLUXNET2015 database, covering 11 different biomes, to parameterize and compare the main Ep methods and 10 uncover their relative performance. For each site, we extracted the days for which ecosystems are unstressed based on both an energy balance approach and on a soil water content approach. The evaporation measurements during these days were used as reference to validate the different methods to estimate Ep. Our results indicate that a simple radiation-driven method calibrated per biome consistently performed best, with a mean correlation of 0.93, an unbiased RMSE of 0.56 mm day -1, and a bias of -0.02 mm day -1 against in situ measurements of unstressed 15 evaporation. A Priestley and Taylor method, calibrated per biome, performed just slightly worse, yet substantially and consistently better than more complex Penman, Penman-Monteith-based or temperature-based approaches.We show that the poor performance of Penman-Monteith based approaches relates largely to the fact that the unstressed stomatal conductance was assumed constant. Further analysis showed that the biome-specific parameters required for the simple radiation-driven methods are relatively constant per biome. This makes this 20 simple radiation-driven method calibrated per biome a robust method that can be incorporated into models for improving our understanding of the impact of global warming on future global water use and demand, drought severity and ecosystem productivity.

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Section: Performance Of the Penman-monteith Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Selection Of Ep Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Maes¹,

Gentine²,

Verhoest³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…Numerous previous studies (e.g. Seiller and Anctil, 2016) show that the choice of PET equation can have an important impact on hydrological outputs.…”

Section: Limitations and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical gridded reconstruction of potential evapotranspiration for the UK

Tanguy¹,

Prudhomme²,

Smith³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is a necessary input data for most hydrological models and is usually needed at a daily or shorter time-step. An accurate estimation of PET requires many input climate variables which are in most cases not 10 available prior to the 1960s for the UK, nor indeed most parts of the world. Therefore, when applying hydrological models for reconstructing earlier periods, modellers have to rely on PET estimation derived from simplified methods. Given that only monthly observed temperature data is readily available for the late 19th and early 20th century at a national scale for the UK, the objective of this work was to derive the best possible UK-wide gridded PET dataset with the limited data available.To that end, firstly, a combination of (i) seven temperature-based PET equations, (ii) four different calibration approaches and 15 (iii) seven input temperature data were evaluated against a gridded daily PET product based on the physically-based PenmanMonteith equation (the CHESS PET dataset), the rationale being that this provides a reliable 'ground-truth' PET dataset for evaluation purposes, given that no directly observed, distributed PET datasets exist. The performance of the models was also compared to the simplest possible estimation of PET ('naïve method') in the absence of any available climate data, the CHESS PET daily long term average (the period from 1961 to 1990 was chosen for this study), or CHESS-PET daily climatology. The 20 analysis revealed that the type of calibration and the input temperature dataset had only a minor effect in the accuracy of the PET estimations at catchment scale. From the seven equations tested, only the calibrated version of the McGuinness-Bordne equation was able to outperform the 'naïve method' and was therefore used to derive the gridded, reconstructed dataset. The equation was calibrated using 43 catchments across Great Britain.The dataset produced is a 5-km gridded PET dataset for the period 1891 to 2015, using as input data for the PET equation the 25 Met Office 5-km monthly gridded temperature data available for that time period, which was disaggregated to daily temperature using pchip (piecewise cubic hermite interpolating polynomial) method. The dataset includes daily and monthly PET grids and is complemented with a suite of mapped performance metrics to help users assess the quality of the data spatially.The data can be accessed here: https://doi.org/10.5285/17b9c4f7-1c30-4b6f-b2fe-f7780159939c.Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi

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An assessment of historical and projected future hydro‐climatic variability and extremes over southern watersheds in the Canadian Prairies

Bonsal

Cuell²,

Wheaton

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Since human activities and ecosystem health require adequate, reliable water supplies, hydro-climatic variability and extremes pose serious threats to society and the environment. Previous studies have shown that the Canadian Prairies normally experience considerable hydro-climatic variability, including periodic droughts and excessive moisture conditions, which are mainly caused by mid-tropospheric circulations that disrupt expected precipitation and temperature patterns. However, no investigations have specifically focused on both past and future hydro-climatology over watersheds within the region. Evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index reveals considerable inter-annual and decadal-scale variability over the study regions of the Oldman and Swift Current Creek Watersheds, with no discernible trends during the last ∼100 years. There is also an indication of increased variability since the mid-1980s. Assessment of the 500 hPa circulation patterns associated with identified hydro-climatic extremes shows that major droughts are related with higher frequencies of distinctive ridging patterns over the Prairie region, and lower incidences of zonal/troughing patterns (the former significantly increasing over the last 60 years). Excessive moisture conditions have opposite patterns. Projections from two (a drier/warmer and wetter/cooler) Regional Climate Models indicate an uncertain future in the selected watersheds ranging from a substantial increase in drought with a higher degree of inter-annual variability, to relatively no change from current conditions. Furthermore, future changes to key atmospheric circulations suggest that those patterns associated with extreme dry conditions will continue in the future and in some cases, increase in frequency. Results from this analysis have improved the understanding of historical hydro-climatic extremes in western Canada and have provided insight into potential future occurrences of these extremes as driven by changes to key surface climate and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

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How do potential evapotranspiration formulas influence hydrological projections?

Cited by 77 publications

References 84 publications

Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Potential evaporation at eddy-covariance sites across the globe

Historical gridded reconstruction of potential evapotranspiration for the UK

An assessment of historical and projected future hydro‐climatic variability and extremes over southern watersheds in the Canadian Prairies

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