How Do Religion and Sexual Orientation Affect Support for U.S. Presidential Candidates? Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Abstract

A growing body of research has examined how candidates’ religion or sexual orientation affect voting likelihood among the U.S. public. No systematic study, however, has focused on the combined effect of these traits. We draw on the intersectionality literature to develop and test hypotheses for this neglected, but important, combination. Results from an original survey experiment conducted in late June 2019 demonstrate that all respondents, as well as the Republican subgroup, tend to disapprove of a gay, religious candidate relative to other options (i.e., gay, nonreligious; straight, religious; and straight, nonreligious). Even Democrats expressed little support except when a straight, religious candidate was the alternative. Our findings underscore the need to study how overlapping—rather than discrete—traits influence political views and behaviors. They also raise important questions about the future of U.S. identity politics. Efforts to rally Republican and Democrat voters by mixing particular types of traits may not be a very effective strategy.

Candidate Identity and Campaign Priming: Analyzing Voter Support for Pete Buttigieg’s Presidential Run as an Openly Gay Man

“…The finding is especially surprising if one considers that conservative and religious voters have traditionally been more supportive of religious candidates (Albertson 2015; Castle et al 2017; McLaughlin and Wise 2014). Our result also confounds the Buttigieg campaign’s decision to amplify the candidate’s faith, but aligns with results from Beyerlein and Klocek (2020) by showing how voters penalize a gay religious candidate.…”

“…Mixed results emerge with regard to sexual orientation. Studies on gay and lesbian politicians running for office have considered both hypothetical candidates (Herrick and Thomas 2002; Golebiowska 2003; Beyerlein and Klocek 2020) and real candidates (Golebiowska 2002; Haider-Markel 2010; Haider-Markel et al 2020). In the case of hypothetical candidates in experiments or non-descriptive survey questions, studies have generally found a negative impact of sexual orientation on electoral chances.…”

“…These studies have found that lesbian and Black gay candidates in the United States face intersectional challenges, beyond the penalties faced by white gay men running for office (Doan and Haider-Markel 2010; Magni and Reynolds 2021a). But work on the interaction of sexual orientation with religiosity and military background is scarce (Beyerlein and Klocek 2020). In fact, these categories have often been seen as mutually exclusive.…”