“…The recent literature on trade dynamics is rich in both substantive mechanisms and quantification (see, among many others,Costantini and Melitz, 2007;Ruhl, 2008;Burstein and Melitz, 2013;Drozd and Nosal, 2012;Alessandria, Choi, and Ruhl, 2014;Ruhl and Willis, 2017;Fitzgerald, Haller, and Yedid-Levi, 2019).3 A strand of the literature uses time series methods (most commonly Error Correction Models) to estimate timevarying trade elasticities with trade prices or trade cost changes as independent variables (e.g Hooper, Johnson, and Marquez, 2000;Gallaway, McDaniel, and Rivera, 2003;. Alessandria and Choi, 2019;Yilmazkuday, 2019;Khan and Khederlarian, 2020). Our work builds on this line of research by tackling tariff endogeneity, using flexible local projections, and expanding the scope of the analysis to many more importers, exporters, and products.…”